The German debt brake (Schuldenbremse) is a constitutional rule introduced in 2009 that limits the federal government's structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP and prohibits federal states from taking on new debt. Recent economic challenges and the Ukraine war, have intensified debate about reforming these fiscal rules. Surveys show 55% of Germans support reforming or abolishing the debt brake.

This is a change to the constitution (Grundgesetz) though and requires a 66% vote in the parliament. The center parties (CDU, SPD, Greens) are missing 3 seats for that, so support from more radical parties is necessary.

This market will resolve YES if Germany implements any constitutional changes to the debt brake rules before March 2027. This includes:

• Changes to the deficit limits

• Modifications to exemption criteria

• Complete abolition of the debt brake

The market will resolve NO if:

• No changes are made until March, 2027

• Only temporary suspensions or emergency measures are implemented without constitutional amendment