The next Bavarian state election is October 8.

The CSU's shares of votes in previous elections were 37%, 48%, and 43%. The last two polls in February were 43% and 42%.

Resolves YES, if the CSU receives more than 42.0% of the votes. NO if less than or equal to 42.0%.

The market shall close the day before the election and I'll adjust the date if necessary.