Resolved to value=3.7, probabilityInt=30.

The parameters were:

min: 1
max: 10

So the probability is (3.7 - 1) / (10 - 1) = 2.7/9 = 0.3

@Eliza Thank you!

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html
Inflation rate at +5.9% in 2023
n December 2023, the inflation rate − measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI) – stood at +3.7%.

@ChristopherRandles Yes, resolves to 3.7.

@Eliza can you do the decimals-resolution-via-API?

@marktwse i'm assuming this question is about the yearly average, right?

@SKy I’m essentially waiting for Destatis to remove the “preliminary” wording. From the description link:

Die Inflationsrate, also die Entwicklung der Verbraucherpreise im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat, lag im Dezember 2023 bei 3,7 % (vorläufiger Wert).

@marktwse but the 3,7 is referring only to the month of december 23 compared to december 22. While the description of your bet says "from beginning to end of 2023". Shouldn't that mean the yearly average which is currently around 5,9?

@marktwse the assumtion of the yearly average would also be congruent with the link to the predictions of "tagesschau" which also refer to the yearly average

and also congruent with the title of the bet :D

@SKy No, this is not about the "yearly average". The phrase "from beginning to end of 2023" is very clearly "end of December 2022 to end of December 2023". The same question was also answered in other comments below.

@marktwse very clearly not :D hope for better wording next time

German consumer price inflation climbed to 3.7% year-on-year in December 2023, rising from the previous month's over two-year low of 3.2% and aligning with the market consensus, a preliminary estimate showed.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-cpi
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html

3.2% as of November.

This is asking about the yearly average, correct? Not about the inlfation in december

@kottsiek Not sure what you mean by “yearly average”.

I assume the “yellow” number from the linked Destatis page for December. Currently, it shows May as the most recent one:

Die Inflationsrate, also die Entwicklung der Verbraucherpreise im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat, lag im Mai 2023 bei +6,1 % (vorläufiges Ergebnis).

@MaxPayne The yellow line is correct. The average would be the equally weighted sum of all the monthly inflation rates (so 1/12*(January+February+...+December)). As you can see here, there is a distinction between inflation in december and yearly inflation:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/01/PD23_022_611.html

Inflationsrate im Jahr 2022 bei +7,9 %

Die Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland haben sich im Jahresdurchschnitt 2022 um 7,9 % gegenüber 2021 erhöht. Wie das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) mitteilt, lag die Jahresteuerungsrate damit deutlich höher als in den vorangegangenen Jahren. So hatte sie im Jahr 2021 noch bei +3,1 % gelegen. „Die h…

Also a market for next year: