Did the DEFUSE project cause the COVID-19 pandemic?
10
148
1k
Dec 31
25%
chance

See e.g. https://twitter.com/emilyakopp/status/1736848388350459913

Guy arguing against: https://twitter.com/wanderer_jasnah/status/1674580502194397185

(I briefly placed a small bet on this market then immediately sold it off at zero profit. I will not bet on this market.)

Resolution will be delegated to the site moderators if any one of the following is true as of 2030 or as of when I resolve it, whichever is earlier:

  • bettors with a total stake of at least 33% dispute my decision

  • if IDK and want to delegate it anyway

  • if I'm not on the site anymore

or furthermore if by 2025 I have not resolved the market but betters with a total stake of at least 67% believe it ought to be resolved already (and said site moderators agree with this faction).

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Not sure whether the type of work proposed in DEFUSE lead to SARS-COV-2 but the Jasnah account's arguments aren't very strong. This account pointed out some apparent flaws and was blocked.

https://twitter.com/Dissenting2020/status/1724768934543466688?t=1hDls2G7vo2w-1NGGsWL6A&s=19

predicts NO

I'd also recommend delegating resolution to a council of site moderators, given we probably won't know the answer for another few years and you probably won't be around to decide. just edit the description to say "resolution will be delegated to the site moderators if a bettor disputes my decision or if i'm not on the site anymore"

@jacksonpolack see the updated description

predicts NO

how do you plan on resolving this if the origin of covid is still unknown in e.g. 2040?

DEFUSE was not funded. But that doesn't mean the researchers at WIV gave up what they were working on. The work almost certainly went ahead (and was ongoing) with funding from other sources.

Would it count if a project similar to DEFUSE caused the pandemic?

@Akzzz123 Well the question asks "Did DEFUSE cause the COVID-19 pandemic?", so if e.g. the other project's existence causally depended on DEFUSE, it would count.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

wanna go in real big?

bought Ṁ80 of YES

@jacksonpolack

50k Virtual shares at 30%?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

hm at 50k i'd need to have the site mods resolve it or something

predicts YES

@jacksonpolack

How about the most probable scenario of Isaac's market by 2040 if it resolves or N/A?

predicts NO

hm I actually think that 'causally dependent' is extremely ambiguous

predicts YES
predicts NO

well there's another one at 31 /41if you want

bought Ṁ0 of NO

yuge limits up at 30+

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