See e.g. https://twitter.com/emilyakopp/status/1736848388350459913
Guy arguing against: https://twitter.com/wanderer_jasnah/status/1674580502194397185
(I briefly placed a small bet on this market then immediately sold it off at zero profit. I will not bet on this market.)
Resolution will be delegated to the site moderators if any one of the following is true as of 2030 or as of when I resolve it, whichever is earlier:
bettors with a total stake of at least 33% dispute my decision
if IDK and want to delegate it anyway
if I'm not on the site anymore
or furthermore if by 2025 I have not resolved the market but betters with a total stake of at least 67% believe it ought to be resolved already (and said site moderators agree with this faction).
1,000
3.00Not sure whether the type of work proposed in DEFUSE lead to SARS-COV-2 but the Jasnah account's arguments aren't very strong. This account pointed out some apparent flaws and was blocked.
https://twitter.com/Dissenting2020/status/1724768934543466688?t=1hDls2G7vo2w-1NGGsWL6A&s=19
I'd also recommend delegating resolution to a council of site moderators, given we probably won't know the answer for another few years and you probably won't be around to decide. just edit the description to say "resolution will be delegated to the site moderators if a bettor disputes my decision or if i'm not on the site anymore"
DEFUSE was not funded. But that doesn't mean the researchers at WIV gave up what they were working on. The work almost certainly went ahead (and was ongoing) with funding from other sources.
Would it count if a project similar to DEFUSE caused the pandemic?
@Akzzz123 Well the question asks "Did DEFUSE cause the COVID-19 pandemic?", so if e.g. the other project's existence causally depended on DEFUSE, it would count.
How about the most probable scenario of Isaac's market by 2040 if it resolves or N/A?