Simon Willison says:

One of my weirder hobbies is trying to convince people that the idea that companies are listening to you through your phone’s microphone and serving you targeted ads is a conspiracy theory that isn’t true.

https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/2/they-spy-on-you-but-not-like-that/

Will there be good evidence by 2030 that tech companies spied on users through device microphones BEFORE 2025?

This only includes major tech companies/platforms such as Apple, Google, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.

Evidence I would accept for this would be a mainstream media source (including smaller but reputable tech publications) publishing a story on this topic. Depending on how contentious the claim/story is, this question might have to wait for a court case before resolving.

Other requirements for this to resolve YES:

• The audio spying can be reasonably considered intentional

• The audio (or derived text/insights) were used to serve targeted ads, likely by sharing data with third parties

• Instances of the spying are extremely likely to have occurred BEFORE Jan 1, 2025

This question will resolve NO if 2030 is reached with no good evidence of the above.

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Excludes government cooperation: This market focuses solely on spying conducted by tech companies for the purpose of targeted ads, not including scenarios where companies collaborate with governments. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Isolated random events, such as abuse of power by an insider, do not qualify as evidence.

  • Widespread perpetration is required to resolve the market.

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Exclusion of directed audio: Utterances directed at voice assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa) as part of ad-targeting profiles do not count. The focus is on passive listening and undirected audio. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

Clarification:

• A single major company (as listed in the description) systematically listening is sufficient to resolve YES.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - Proof of Ads from Recordings: A class action settlement alone does not meet the requirements unless it includes evidence that ads were served based on recordings. (AI summary of creator comment)