lukalot's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when lukalot bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- A Massive Public List of Large Language Model Outputs Will Be Created and Posted on Github or Equivalent by End of Q1 2023YESṀ20
- Will Manifold's discover page, swipes, and @mention autocomplete features be back online by 4:00pm PT January 10th?YESṀ20
- Will Hello Games, the studio behind the famous 2016 game 'No Mans Sky', announce the title or relevant details of their upcoming "ambitious" project during 2023?YESṀ20
80%
90%