How many non-predictive markets with 5+ participants will there have been in 2022?
Resolves to the number of markets we can agree on in the comments by close, I'm open to discuss the exact resolution criteria or defer to someone mutually trusted on disagreement. Resolves to MAX if this is reached before close.
Current inclusion criteria:
Unique traders excluding creator >= 5
Non-contested. Resolved to yes/no or still open
Resolution criterion must be already fulfilled at open and extremely low-effort
Must be referred in the comments. If this get unwieldy, we can switch to a google docs or sth similar
I will not trade on this market.
Example markets that qualify:
Related questions
@a Nah, not if the result is not deterministic - e.g., if there is only one participant, and that is obvious at open, I'd maybe it, but otherwise not.
@a I'm mostly looking for numbers on super low effort markets where the only uncertainty is counterparty risk.
@lu Ah, sorry, misread your question. I don't care about the "famous person stock" markets right now, they are a secondary concern - you can have different outcomes on these, and you have to model other people's responses, so they are non-zero-effort. I'm mostly thinking about markets where there is actually only one possible bet if you trust the creator, like "Is 1=1?".
Background thoughts:
Trivial markets mostly benefit the market creators and the first few participants who trade there. At the same time, they have negative externalities - there will be more noise and inflation.
Currently, the payoffs for making markets strongly encourage this behavior. A yes/no market costs M50 to create, and returns M10 per unique participant (~M80 to M1510 in the examples). This has a higher ROI than many trades, and way less risk. This should lead to more trivial markets on the short term.
We can change the incentives to prevent this exploit - e.g., make creating markets more expensive if you create a lot of them, or lower the mana per participant, or remove the rewards (past break-even) for non-informative markets.
