Will a middle spotted woodpecker be seen in Britain by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will a middle spotted woodpecker be seen in Britain by the end of 2030?

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6

Ṁ43

2031

58%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if a middle spotted woodpecker (Dendrocoptes medius) is seen in Britain by the end of 2030. The bird must be reasonably believed to be wild. The Channel Islands or overseas territories do not count, and being seen in British waters does count, as do dead birds and birds detected through satellite tracking or cameras (the point is that the bird should meet the standard of a "British first", though I will not necessarily wait for formal addition to the BOURC's British List).

Context: The April 2023 edition (Issue 370) of Birdwatch magazine featured an article called "Anticipating new additions" by Sam Viles that discussed many species from Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East that could potentially visit Britain, including this one.

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Sounds made up ;)

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