This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Mike Braun, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
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@BTE I don’t buy this analysis at all. (Though I didn’t know Braun was running for governor, maybe 3% is a tad low.) Indiana’s simply a red state now. Republican won for Senate 59-38 in 2022. Even in 2018, with a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic wave year, the Republican still won 51-45. Furthermore, Inside Elections has the 2024 race as Solid R, and I’ve heard no one mention this as a race to watch, so I feel well-supported.
Now I just have to raise the cash to keep this market down. :)
@BTE Uh, he lost it in 2012 by ten? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana
@Conflux My bad. I still think there are Evan Bayh democrats who could win statewide. But you are definitely right about Obama getting slammed in 2012.