This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Mike Braun, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
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I live in Indiana and I would not rule out a Democrat for this seat. Pete Buttigieg could win this seat. The incumbent Republican has already declared for the Governor race in 2024 so it’s an open seat and should not be trading anywhere near single digits with no incumbent.
@BTE I don’t buy this analysis at all. (Though I didn’t know Braun was running for governor, maybe 3% is a tad low.) Indiana’s simply a red state now. Republican won for Senate 59-38 in 2022. Even in 2018, with a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic wave year, the Republican still won 51-45. Furthermore, Inside Elections has the 2024 race as Solid R, and I’ve heard no one mention this as a race to watch, so I feel well-supported.
Now I just have to raise the cash to keep this market down. :)
@BTE Uh, he lost it in 2012 by ten? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana