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And there's CNN:

https://manifold.markets/Conflux/has-dave-wasserman-ever-seen-enough

Has Dave Wasserman ever "seen enough" in an election and been wrong?

Resolved NO. Sometimes Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict), of the Cook Political Report, tweets "I've seen enough", and projects the result of an election based on the returns at that time (example, example, example), typically before major news networks. "I've seen enough" has great accuracy. In fact, from cursory searching, I don't know of any examples where he's predicted wrong. However, I feel like they probably exist? This market resolves in a week, and resolves YES if I've been made aware of any instance when Dave Wasserman tweeted "I've seen enough" but was wrong. It resolves NO otherwise. I will not be doing any more independent research, and am really hoping someone on this market links me to examples or, even better, a helpful analysis of his hit rate. In addition to profits, I may award tips for sufficiently helpful links!

Beshear doubters where y’all at?

@dittopoop this is premature in my opinion. you should have >99.9% certainty to call a race, and I don't believe that's justified yet

hahahah so close

For now it does not look like Cameron is getting the rural voter turnout he needs to make this a toss-up race. If this trend holds it's basically over for him. If it picks up a bit the question turns into: how much support does Beshear lose in Jefferson, Fayette and Kenton counties + how much can Cameron win back in counties like Boone and Oldham? Cameron's path to victory goes explicitly through the suburbs. I don't think this is a favorable matchup for him at all.

My projection: Beshear wins by around 2%.

Okay, this might really come down to turnout on both sides - Jefferson County not turning out for Beshear, at least not in superb numbers. Boone looking like Cameron is picking up votes. ED vote in the counties from my earlier will be decisive, imo. Don't think Beshear will overperform in W KY - and if so only locally (some good disaster management votes).

in short, we seem to have ourselves a race. I gtg to work and am not super confident in my analysis so sold my stake. Andy still favored, though!

Cameron really not doing great EKY. Needs low urban turnout, WKY sweep and suburban swing. Possible, but not the most likely of outcomes. Oh well, I'll see how this went in a few hours.

Hey @FairlyFrozen since you're one of the biggest traders here, I'd love to discuss your info/analysis and compare to mine, if you'd like to share. I'll go first:

I'm mostly predicting based on polls. There was a just-released Emerson poll that put them tied (or even Cameron up by 1 point). https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2023-poll-cameron-catches-up-to-beshear-in-governors-race/, which was a big shift from their previous poll. On the other hand, other polls still show Beshear up https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2023/kentucky/. Overall I think Beshear is favored but less than 85% favored.

Kentucky 2023 Poll: Cameron Catches Up to Beshear in Governor’s Race - Emerson Polling

Trump Supporters Rally to Cameron as Election Approaches The final Emerson College Polling survey of…Full Release & Results

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/03/andy-beshear-daniel-cameron-tied-kentucky-governors-race-emerson-poll/71436569007/

With Kentucky governor election days away, new poll has Andy Beshear, Daniel Cameron tied

Andy Beshear has led over Daniel Cameron in most Kentucky governor's race polls. But an Emerson College Polling report shows the race tightening.

https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-shows-gov-andy-beshear-has-62-job-approval-with-strong-support-across-party-lines

Incumbents with a 62% approval rating don't lose even if they're the wrong party. See Kansas, Vermont, Louisiana, and previously Massachusetts and Maryland.

Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition