Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?
resolved Nov 8

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Marnix avatar
Marnixsold Ṁ13 of YES

And there's CNN:

dittopoop avatar
dittopoopbought Ṁ70 of YES

Beshear doubters where y’all at?

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ10 of NO

@dittopoop this is premature in my opinion. you should have >99.9% certainty to call a race, and I don't believe that's justified yet

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ100 of YES

hahahah so close

sarius avatar
sariuspredicted YES

For now it does not look like Cameron is getting the rural voter turnout he needs to make this a toss-up race. If this trend holds it's basically over for him. If it picks up a bit the question turns into: how much support does Beshear lose in Jefferson, Fayette and Kenton counties + how much can Cameron win back in counties like Boone and Oldham? Cameron's path to victory goes explicitly through the suburbs. I don't think this is a favorable matchup for him at all.

My projection: Beshear wins by around 2%.

sarius avatar
sariussold Ṁ747 of YES

Okay, this might really come down to turnout on both sides - Jefferson County not turning out for Beshear, at least not in superb numbers. Boone looking like Cameron is picking up votes. ED vote in the counties from my earlier will be decisive, imo. Don't think Beshear will overperform in W KY - and if so only locally (some good disaster management votes).

in short, we seem to have ourselves a race. I gtg to work and am not super confident in my analysis so sold my stake. Andy still favored, though!

sarius avatar

Cameron really not doing great EKY. Needs low urban turnout, WKY sweep and suburban swing. Possible, but not the most likely of outcomes. Oh well, I'll see how this went in a few hours.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ471 of NO

Hey @FairlyFrozen since you're one of the biggest traders here, I'd love to discuss your info/analysis and compare to mine, if you'd like to share. I'll go first:

I'm mostly predicting based on polls. There was a just-released Emerson poll that put them tied (or even Cameron up by 1 point). https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2023-poll-cameron-catches-up-to-beshear-in-governors-race/, which was a big shift from their previous poll. On the other hand, other polls still show Beshear up https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2023/kentucky/. Overall I think Beshear is favored but less than 85% favored.

WrongoPhD avatar
Professor Wrongobought Ṁ20 of NO
BRTD avatar
BRTDbought Ṁ30 of YES


Incumbents with a 62% approval rating don't lose even if they're the wrong party. See Kansas, Vermont, Louisiana, and previously Massachusetts and Maryland.

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2 traders bought Ṁ70 YES
ManifoldDream avatar

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