Lisa Marsh's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Lisa Marsh bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
50%
- Will Brad Raffensperger win the Republican primary for Secretary of State in Georgia?YESṀ50
- Will Germany make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?NOṀ20
- Will EAGxIndia 2023 be cancelled?NOṀ20
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Arizona?YESṀ10
- Will a Democrat (John Fetterman) win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election (against Republican nominee Dr. Oz)?YESṀ10
- Will the movie 'Tár' win any Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards?NOṀ10
- Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?YESṀ10
- Will Tina Kotek (D) be elected governor of Oregon in the 2022 election?YESṀ10
60%
- Will a team score 6 or more goals in a single match during the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 11pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ15
- Will France eliminate England at the quarter-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ10
- Will over $100 be donated today? (it's Giving Tuesday today!)YESṀ10
70%
- Will Musk win Tech Won't Save Us' worst person in tech competition?NOṀ23
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 6am ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 10pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 4pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 6pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 5am ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 9pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- Will Everything Everywhere All At Once win the Best Picture Oscar?YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 28 5pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- Will at least two bots bet in this market in the first 24 hours after I create it?NOṀ10
80%
- Will Trump be indicted by April 30, 2023?YESṀ400
- Will Trump be indicted by April 14, 2023?YESṀ200
- Will Trump be indicted by Nov 2024?YESṀ100
- Will junior doctors in the UK vote to strike in 2023?YESṀ41
- Will Croatia win 3rd place at the World Cup?YESṀ40
- Will there be a floor challenge to Kevin McCarthy becoming Speaker of the House?YESṀ30
- Will there be 8,008,000,000 people by the end of 2022?YESṀ30
- Will there be 8,008,000,000 people by the end of 2022?YESṀ29
- Will Croatia vs Brazil be decided via penalty shoot-out?YESṀ26
- Will there be celebrations and/or riots in Paris after the France vs. Morocco World Cup match?YESṀ22
90%
- Will Trump be indicted by May 31, 2023?YESṀ300
- Will the U.K. government issue a Section 35 order to block the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill?YESṀ225
- Will there be more than 15,000,000 votes in Elon Musk's "Should I step down" poll?YESṀ100
- Will Netherlands vs Argentina be decided via penalty shoot-out?YESṀ100
- Will 3 teams with red on their flags make it to the semi-finals of the World Cup?YESṀ100
- Will the UK administer a second booster (fourth dose of vaccination) to their citizens by December 31st, 2022?YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person.YESṀ50
- Will mathlib have formal proofs of 70 out of 100 theorems from Freek Wiedijk's list before July?YESṀ40
- Will over $300 be donated today? (it's Giving Tuesday today!)YESṀ30
- Will JD Vance win the Ohio Senate seat?YESṀ30
95%
- Will Trump be indicted by November 30, 2023?YESṀ103
- Will Netherlands vs Argentina be decided via penalty shoot-out?YESṀ100
- Will Netherlands vs Argentina be decided via penalty shoot-out?YESṀ100
- Will a Republican win the 2022 Alaska governor's race?YESṀ80
- Will Messi win again the best player on FIFA world cup?YESṀ56
- Will Elon Musk attend the world cup final?YESṀ52
- Will any traders roll a 49 on a 50-sided Fairly Random die by market closing?YESṀ24
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 27 10am ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
- Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?YESṀ20
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 27 8am ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ20
97%
- Will both teams score in the Croatia vs Morocco game?YESṀ109
- Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?YESṀ76
- 3. Will PredictIt think Joe Biden is the most likely 2024 Dem nominee by the end of 2022?YESṀ70
- Will >= 510 of Biden's political appointees be confirmed by the Senate by the end of 2022?YESṀ60
- Will over $200 be donated today? (it's Giving Tuesday today!)YESṀ55
- Will both teams score in the Croatia vs Morocco game?YESṀ40
- Will over $400 be donated today? (it's Giving Tuesday today!)YESṀ35
- Will the USA win against Iran at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ15
- Will any traders roll a 49 on a 50-sided Fairly Random die by market closing?YESṀ1
99%
- Soccer: Will a penalty be finally awarded to Bristol City in February?YESṀ1,000
- Will Argentina win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ400
- Will there be 3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup?YESṀ200
- Will there be 6 or more goals on Dec 6 at the FIFA World Cup?YESṀ160
- Will any player score a hat trick in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ130
- Will I have 75 followers by the end of 2022?YESṀ125
- Will Qatar score a goal in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ100
- Will France eliminate Morocco at the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ100