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Awkward, this. Given OpenAI's last statement they'd reached an agreement in principal for Altman's return, and other similar questions have not treated that as decisive. Elsewhere, Satya Nadella is unclear about whether Altman is or ever was a Microsoft employee: https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1726736276676620700. This similar question has resolved though, so I'm going to do the same: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/until-when-will-sam-altman-be-activ.

@lemonwatcher and note that I phrased this as "still" in the question so don't intend to wait until 2026 to resolve.

Question closesDec 20, 2023, 11:59:00 PM

@lemonwatcher Is it right that market is closing at the end of 2023, but the resolution criteria is 2026?

@bessarabov ach no, that's my stupidity. I've changed it to the early on the 2026-01-01. I don't know what the usual etiquette is around here about timezones.

I don't know what the usual etiquette is around here about timezones.

I feel that the most common way of dealing with timezones here is not not to think about them. 😂 And usually it really does not matter. When the market is about several years period it is unlikely that some important event happen in the latest moment when the timezone make any difference.

But I don't quite like this approach and in my own markets I always try to explicitly specify the timezone in the market descriptions (And I usually use the timezone of the object related to the market, for example here I would use timezone of the city of Redmond, Washington — where the MS office is situated, that is Pacific Time Zone)

I also usually set the close date of the market to the January 2, so the year is over for sure in all the timezones.

But this is not a community best practices / etiquette, just my preffered way.

More specific question here if it takes your fancy: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/until-when-will-sam-altman-be-activ