Tommy McBayes is on trial for murder! He’s either innocent or guilty, and you will have to figure out which, with the help of your fellow Manifolders! We earnestly hope that all will cooperatively seek the correct verdict and avoid bayesian persuasion.
YES to convict
NO to acquit
Every 2 days, between 7 PM PST and 9 PM PST, the organizers will see which participant holds the largest number of shares in this market (either YES or NO), and ask that participant in the comments to propose a test.
This test will return “guilty” or “innocent”, but has a certain rate of false negatives, and the selected participant will publicly set these two probabilities.
For example, if they select “60 guilty/50 innocent”, then the test will be accurate 60 percent of the time if they are guilty, and will be accurate 50 percent of the time if they are innocent.
The organizers conduct the test within the next day, and will publicly comment whether the test returned guilty or innocent.
Unfortunately, the court’s most accurate tests take more time to prepare. Initially, tests can have false negatives from 40-60, and with each testing cycle, more accurate tests are possible (35-65 for the second test, 30-70 for the third test, etc.).
Tommy’s trial will run for 20 days/10 tests, or until the market is at/above 99% or at/below 1% at the time of testing.
The first day of testing is January 30. The organizers (@KCS , @Nadja_L) have flipped a coin and have taken note of Tommy’s guilt or innocence. Obviously, the organizers will not trade.
Tests:
(40-60 permitted, @jcb chose 60/60): innocent
(35-65 permitted, @jcb chose 65/65): innocent
(30-70 permitted, @MartinModrak chose 37/61): guilty
(25-75 permitted, @MartinModrak chose 51/73): guilty
(20-80 permitted, @prigoryan chose 20/20): guilty
(15-85 permitted, @yaboi69 chose 85/50): innocent
(10-90 permitted, @MartinModrak chose 90/90): guilty
(5-95 permitted, @prigoryan chose 95/95): guilty
(1-99 permitted, @prigoryan chose 99/99): guilty
(0-100 permitted, @prigoryan chose 50/1): innocent
Close date updated to 2023-02-19 11:59 pm
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,758 | |
| 2 | Ṁ87 | |
| 3 | Ṁ28 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ27 |