kenakofer's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.19
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when kenakofer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- 44. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023?YESṀ500
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ215
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ200
90%
95%
97%
- Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?YESṀ1,080
- Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?YESṀ1,000
- By the end of 2023, will the `/market/*/positions` Manifold API endpoint be re-enabled?YESṀ1,000