This market predicts the price range of $TRUMP on Donald Trump's potential inauguration date.
Resolution Criteria: The highest $TRUMP will have been at the end of Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025.
References:
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน46 | |
| 2 | แน33 | |
| 3 | แน7 | |
| 4 | แน3 |
@mods Creator pinged 9 days ago.
Possible different interpretation see comments below.
Hope it can be resolved, thanks.
@ChristopherRandles @JussiVilleHeiskanen
I read your discussion below and the creator's comments and original market text.
Considering the amount at stake here, I am going to resolve it to my best estimate. If you are not happy with this, we will unresolve it and then we need to convene 3 moderators to deal with the ambiguity. This would introduce a significant N/A risk and also it is incredibly hard to convene 3 moderators so it could take a very long time.
I'm trying to be practical here. The way I see it is it's about the SPECIFIC day of January 20th, and the highest price it reaches on that day. Which is apparently between 60 and 70. The downloaded CSV data from coinmarketcap indicates $63.5 on the 20th.
Once again, if you wish to, we can unresolve it then introduce the entire procedure.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/20/nx-s1-5268759/donald-trump-melania-cryptocurrency-meme-coins 73 on sunday but yes, not on monday
Highest I see is around $62.12 at
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/official-trump/
Think I saw $63.5 there yesterday and so there could be more volatility than shown.
I see over $70 on the 19th. but not on 20th
What source will be used for resolution?
@ChristopherRandles the resolution criteria are tricky. Is it the highest on the day in question or the highest up to the day in question. Sort of controversial no matter which he picks
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes I would agree there is some ambiguity:
1. Question seems clear it is about on 20th Jan.
2. 1st sentence of description seems it is about 'on 20th Jan'.
3. Both of above indicate it is about price range rather than highest price. However given other parts saying it is about highest, I don't think this matters much if at all.
4. The next sentence about resolution criteria is somewhat ambiguous - is it saying it is the 'highest will have been' 'on 20 Jan 2025' or the highest it has ever been by end of inauguration date and this date just happens to be 'on 20 Jan 2025'.
5 There is the comment by creator "highest it has been where it closes on inauguration day" This can be taken as 'highest on inauguration date' or highest it has ever been when it closes at end of inauguration date.
While I am slightly more inclined to take 4 and 5 as meaning 'highest on inauguration date' rather than highest it has ever been partly because the 'ever' is not present, I would accept a view that 4 and 5 are ambiguous. As 4 and 5 are at best ambiguous whereas 1 and 2 are more clear, in absence of creator giving further explanation of his intentions, I think it would be a sensible conclusion to decide it is highest on the day.
Disclosure I have positions selling 0-10 and 10-20 so my only potential bias on interpreting this is towards not wanting question to be N/A'd.
@ChristopherRandles I have a significant position at stake, but genuinely can see either 60 to 70 or alternatively Other being justifiable. Personally I won't complain even if it goes against me
@JussiVilleHeiskanen This is about the highest it has been where it closes on inauguration day. I will clarify in the description.