Will I pass all my exams this semester?
resolved Apr 9

Today is the first day of my third semester at university studying economics. The Exams for this semester will take place in February and March.

My classes are

  1. Microeconomics II

  2. Macroeconomics I

  3. Econometrics

  4. Statistics I

  5. Physics.

In the first semester I had Math I, Statistics I, Basics of economics, Theory of the Firm. I passed Math I and Basics of economics and not the other two, that's why I am doing statistics again this semester.

In the second semester I had Maths II, Statistics II, Micro I, Finance & Investing. I passed Maths II and not Statistics II, the other two I don't know yet.

Going from 2/4 to 1 - 3/4 to 5/4 would be very good.

I can choose one of my subjects freely. I would like to do physics but if I find it too hard I might also decide to do something else. For this market I am allowed to also do something else. I just have to complete 5 subjects.

I will not buy and NO shares or sell any of my YES shares.

Personal Information

I am 20.

In my German equivalent to highschool i was in the top 33% for my final grade.

I mostly found school easy and was very lazy throughout.

I like economics a lot and am very motivated to pass all my exams.

I have Dyslexia and I suspect I have ADHD. I have had one appointment with a psychiatrist and will have a second one this week. It seems like getting a diagnosis and treatment will take a while so I don't know if I can get treatment (that works) before my exams.

My parents both have masters degrees though not in quantitative subjects, my older brother dropped out of his CS studies.

Feel free to ask me any personal questions.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Never enjoyed losing Ṁ466 this much <3

Professor is really slow for some reason.

@justifieduseofFallibilism I'll resolve the day the results are published.

Finished last exam 25 minutes ago. Three days ago my Stats exam went super well, but then I became more pessimistic after the second subject seemed quite hard, but I studied a lot in the last two days (filled 33 pages or so while doing problems). And the exam went well. Market should be lower than 97% but not that much.

@SemioticRivalry I only know 4/5 results right now.

Stats exam tomorrow that I'm very well prepared for. Then on Friday theory of the firm exam that I still have to do more for but 2.5 days should mostly be sufficient:)

Pass 3 hard exams 2 easy ones to go. But I was at my parents last week and basically didn't study at all. Now I only have like 11 days left till the exams. Should still be doable but I have to study now!

Probably passed my first 3, and feeling optimistic for the other 2

bought Ṁ250 of YES

I didn't do enough of the problem sets to be allowed to take the physics exam, so it makes sense that the probability is a lot lower than it was at the beginning. But I can still do a 5th exam that isn't physics so the market still has a good chance of resolving Yes.

predicted NO

@justifieduseofFallibilism Don't underestimate doing 5 exams where you did nothing for one of them during the lecture period, especially if you care about your grades. I'm fine holding NO at 77% :)

predicted YES

@nebelkugel Don't care about my grades too much. But buying no at 77% doesn't sound like a bad strategy from your perspective.

predicted YES

Got an ADHD diagnosis and can probably get medication this or next week. Buy YES now👍😉