Please Resolve

UK politics

Leaders

Politics

Free Money

Nuclear Risk

Improperly Resolved

US 2022 Midterms

Predictions on Predictions

ArbBot Inbox

Tomek's 🟡 specials

Twitter

Fire the CEO Markets

Musk Mania

Elon musk

Technology

2023 CEOs

CEOs of companies

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Twitter CEO

arae's College Applications

Magic: The Gathering

Culture

118th Congress

Speaker of the House election

Manifold

Boston EA

Resolves to "Yes" if Russia did attack Ukraine before the end of the 2022 winter Olympics.
Read more here: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/11/1080164367/russia-ukraine-invasion-olympics-sullivan

Feb 12, 10:40am: #RussiaUkraine

MAGA-land

Features

Manifold Twitch Stream

Meta-Forecasting

This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022.

Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil.

Sports

Entertainment and Pop Culture

Maniifold Features

The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention
Further reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022

#EffectiveAltruism #Politics

Finance

Self-resolving

Whale Watching

Whales vs. Minnows

This market resolves to "YES" if I have made another market on Manifold Markets using this account before midnight ET on February 19. (in other words, at the end of Feb 18)

I want to make more markets, especially to use in EA community building, but I'm also busy and a bit lazy.

This question resolves to yes if i forget it exists and don't come back to resolve it until long after the week expiry happens.

This Used To Be About Markets

Donald Trump

Culture War

Mana

Polls

If this person ends up betting anonymously, it is impossible to tell if two bets were actually the same, so if the text says "x users spent M$y on YES/NO", then I will use the number y/x, since by the this is a lower-bound for the maximum amount which could have been spent by any particular user.

Feb 15, 11:01am: because April is curious, the market will resolve to N/A if what she is trying works

Feb 15, 11:01am: in general any situation which I don’t have explicitly outlined is going to be resolved as N/A

Judged by the size of pool, will this market have a total of M$ 20,000 invested in it by 11:59 pm EST on March 11th?

The market will stay open until March 11th. #meta #shortterm #fun

Feb 23, 10:28am: This market will not resolve until it closes. I'll resolve based on the pool size at close since that is simplest to determine. So if it is over or equal to $20,000 at close then the market will resolve to YES. If it is below $20,000 at close, then it will resolve to NO.

Close date updated to 2022-03-11 11:59 pm

Feb 23, 10:45am: @LeonardoTaglialegne Thanks!

Manifold Features

This market resolves to "YES" if the conference EAGxBoston 2022 takes place on April 1, April 2, or April 3 of 2022.

This market resolves to "NO" if the conference is postponed or cancelled such that it doesn't take place on those dates or if it no longer has the name "EAGxBoston".

Conference details here: https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxboston-2022/

Jimmy Carter

LessWrong

Petrov Day

Last target was way too easy. Lets 10x it

Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.

Juan Gil

This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in its execution does.

May 6, 8:28am: UPDATE: After changing the subject (in this thread: https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1520532465474883584) away from longtermism and towards a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, a recent thread of Gebru's has continued to criticize longtermism (https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1522450716563976193?cxt=HHwWgsCtzYi36qAqAAAA).

Science

Currently I have 11 Manifold followers. If I reach at least 50 this resolves YES.

Jun 15, 9:27pm: Currently at 16 Followers.

Jun 17, 4:45pm: Up to 23 Followers

By the end of the day (EST) February 25th, will a total of at least M$ 15,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market?

#meta #shortterm #fun

Feb 22, 8:16pm: To clarify, this markets stays open until Feb 25th.

Among archetypes with at least a 10% metagame share in the alchemy portion, I will identify the archetype with the highest non-mirror winrate. Most likely I will rely on the mtgdata winrate matrix published after the tournament to group the decks into archetypes and answer this question, or if not available I will do it myself. If the majority of the decks in this top-performing archetype contain the card "runeforge champion", I will resolve this question to yes, otherwise, no.

Close date updated to 2022-03-13 11:59 pm

Personal Decision in Hindsight

This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

Internet

Cryptocurrency

FTX Liquidity Crisis (Nov 2022)

Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours.

Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%!

Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness.

Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would*

Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time.

Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :(
Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong

US Politics

US 2022 Elections

Crypto Prices

It'd be great to have Fortified Essays (ala Metaculus) where prediction markets are embedded directly next to an interesting news story. Ideally, this could just be a Substack embed (the kind they have for tweets/Youtube vids/OpenSea NFTs), but I doubt that Substack would be willing/interested in working with us.

I think Manifold should just build out the functionality of Substack ourselves (famous last words: how hard could it be?) but Stephen thinks it's a bad business and a lot of effort.

(If Substack supports arbitrary iframe embeds, this would resolve true)

May 1, 11:47am: See https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-substack-support-native-manifo for more thoughts

May 1, 11:47am: Oops I meant https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manistack-7d37d8828fce4f64a57d914fdd5ef955

Really should think about that "edit description" function...

2022 FIFA World Cup

Aella's Twitter Poles

Pun Title

2022 World Cup Tournament

Based on whichever colour is cheapest, from this link: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Apple-MacBook-Chip-13-inch-256GB/dp/B08N5NMHM3/ref=sr_1_2?crid=AR1UJ8ARVRSO&keywords=macbook+air+m1&qid=1652396059&sprefix=macbook+air+m%2Caps%2C104&sr=8-2

Qualy the Lightbulb

Economics

Short-term Markets

Presidential Politics

Future US Presidents

2024 US Presidential Election

Harvard EA Ecosystem

Polymarket

The effective altruism (EA) movement is gathering momentum in the public eye, which will bring both extra scrutiny and extra conflict. This question is not necessarily about scandals alone, but rather is intended to get at whether something will happen that could contribute to lots of people (who might’ve otherwise been neutral or EA-sympathetic) not wanting to publicly associate with EA. 

“Serious” means that the precipitating event is very important and has long-term ramifications beyond a small circle; ie charges of corruption would count but a standard social media spat would not.  “Serious” also includes attacks on EA as a movement or on its fundamentals, so if there’s no specific unethical event, but there’s a large, sustained public backlash against EA within the next year anyway, this will resolve as YES. (I don’t have solid criteria for what counts as large & sustained but am happy for bettors to persuade me.)
“High-profile” means publicized in major outlets not explicitly affiliated with EA, so any standard news source but not, eg, the EA Forum or popular newsletters by EA writers.

So for clarity, examples of what counts and would lead me to resolve the market as YES:
- An EA organization or EA public figure is credibly accused of serious misconduct, and this story plays out in a mainstream media outlet.
- EA becomes widely castigated by mainstream outlets and other public thought leaders *even if community members don’t agree with the assessment*.

Doesn’t count:
- Two key figures in the EA movement get into a mud-slinging match on Twitter with each other and a mainstream outlet writes about it for the drama.
- An EA organization or public figure is credibly accused of serious misconduct, but the discussion is limited to EA circles.
- Public intellectuals criticize the EA movement but the discussion is pretty academic and stays limited to EA and academic circles.

Effective Altruism

Daliban HQ

Destiny.gg

Gaming

Video Games

Jokes

Hidden Markets

Manibadges

FTX Liquidity Crunch (Nov 2022)

2022 Georgia Runoffs

Dwarf Fortress is a construction and management simulation and roguelike indie video game created by Bay 12 Games. Available as freeware and in development since 2002, its first alpha version was released in 2006 and it received attention for being a two-member project surviving solely on donations. In March 2019, a paid-for enhanced version of Dwarf Fortress was announced for Windows computers through Steam and itch.io, published by Kitfox Games. 
The release date in Steam is currently "time is subjective".

This market resolves YES if any playable version of Dwarf Fortress is released on Steam this year, even in Early Access. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Juan Gil's calibration