# Juan Gil's calibration

Grade: B, Score: -1.96

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Juan Gil bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

5%

10%

20%

30%

- Will Russia invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics conclude?NOṀ50
- Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?NOṀ40
- Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?NOṀ40

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ2,000
- Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)?YESṀ200
- Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)?YESṀ100

95%

97%