19
358
Mar 14
1.2%
Spindle is Spindle--not a sockpuppet/alt/anyone in disguise
0.0%
THE BEST
0.0%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
0.0%
Yev
0.0%
Sandy
0.0%
Sandy's ex
0.0%
Zenbu (ACX admin)
0.0%
TheSkeward (old ACX admin)
0.0%
Zenbu (new ACX admin)
0.0%
Me
0.0%
The set of all users who added themself to the options on this market.
59%
Theodidactus
0.0%
Jason Choi
0.0%
Spindle
0.0%
Sam Bankman-Fried
4%
Gary Wang
5%
Untir
0.0%
Yev's father

From the Manifold Discord:

jbeshir — 9/30/22 at 3:47 PM

Spindle: Regularly makes huge bets in unprofitable directions, giving massive profits to whoever bets against them first. Identity, motives, budget unknown.

What is the true identity of @Spindle? This market resolves to the best answer available to me by the close date. (If the answer becomes public unambiguously before the close date, I'll resolve the market early.)

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Look this iz all really zimple

In caze u fools are 2 foolish to figure it out I've left this super duper polymathematical cypher that revealz my identity. It's like something the zodiac killer would do, but even harder!

aaa*rzm*wro*orz*mdl*lor*nty*lfh*ozt*haa*a

(there, that'll keep em buzy 4 the next few days)

There we go @oh, you wanted a cipher!

@IsaacKing You’re so mean 😝 😂

@Spindle Seriously, atbash? That’s the first code I ever learned. שסממלתאצמלפככזבפאמפאגנפשיעצ

@oh u fool thats not atbash

@journcy Can this resolve?

@EvanDaniel I messaged them on Discord

@oh of courze, it needz to resolve to the BEST available answer

@Spindle How would you suggest it resolve?

@oh I have repeatedly outed myzelf including in this very comments thread and if ur not smart enough to figure it out then prediction is doomed DOOOMD I ZAY

@Spindle I’m happy you’re having fun, truly! 🙂

@Spindle im not, this is actually really serious business, of the sort an adult would do. There are trades and portfolioz involved, it is all very complicated

There is no way that @Spindle isn't @IsaacKing.

@Mirek naw man Im way smarter than that

I'm going to close the market while I decide whether or not recent events count as "unambiguous." I'll reopen if I decide it wasn't (or if I'm convinced this is improper conduct by me either way) and resolve if I decide it was.

@journcy What happened?

@IsaacKing THINGZ!

ZOUNDS! I've been unmasked!

answered
Yev's father
bought Ṁ5

He used the word "tranche" in the family group chat. Very sus.

Well this is exciting.

I will reveal my troo identity if you don't rezolve it till 1/5/2023

-Spindle

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at#1UAZfv5XCjqMeecCv3f8

answered
Jason Choi
bought Ṁ1

Just used the word "tranche" in a sentence. Extremely susicious.

https://twitter.com/mrjasonchoi/status/1592502827833663488

Another mystery:

bought Ṁ100 of THE BEST

I've divulged ZEVRET CLUEZ about my identity in MANY MARKETS. It's simply a matter of expanding ur mind