Josh Bleecher Snyder's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -11.9
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Josh Bleecher Snyder bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Joe Biden receive more than 50.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?NOṀ10
- Will Americans' confidence in the Supreme Court decline in 2024, according to Gallup?NOṀ10
- Will Trump be penalized in anyway (fined, jailed, etc) for violating any GAG order a third time.NOṀ5