# Jonny Spicer's calibration

Grade: B+, Score: -1.12

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jonny Spicer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

10%

30%

40%

50%

- Will France eliminate England at the quarter-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ50
- Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?NOṀ50
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ25

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

97%