Will the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut get encircled by the Russians and surrender/get wiped out in March?
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resolved Apr 1
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NO
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Where do you draw the line between pulling out and being encircled, e.g. how would you resolve this and the other market if most of the army manages to pull out successfully but some units remain and have to surrender?

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard I'll go by the consensus of the mainstream media. For example, if the vast majority of reputable legacy media reports that the Ukrainian army has pulled out despite there being a minority of soldiers who are captured, then I will still consider the Ukrainian army to have successfully pulled out because that is what the consensus is.

predicted NO

@johnleoks I think you should list the sources that you'll be pulling info from cuz i feel like "mainstream media" just sounds too broad and someone is going to argue on whether it's even "mainstream media", or on the # of sources, etc.
it'll be less of a headache in the future.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING I think it's fairly straight forward what mainstream media refers to. Reuters, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, Fox, WAPO, Guardian, BBC, NY Times, WSJ etc. Alt media even popular ones such as The Daily Wire or The Intercept would not count.

predicted NO

@johnleoks does sky news count

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING No because Australia isn't a real country.