The ICC has issued a warrant for arrest for Putin. Will Putin be arrested if he leaves Russia?
  1. An indictment of Putin would make the president of Russia an international fugitive.

  2. "It's not easy for a head of state to fear being arrested when he or she puts foot in a European country or in a North American country," said Justice Richard Goldstone.

  3. "He is inevitably now trapped in Russia. He will never be able to travel internationally, because it would be too great a risk that he would be captured and brought before a court of law," said Ambassador Beth Van Schaack.

  4. "They will enjoy some impunity while they stay within Russia," Van Schaack said, "but what we have seen is perpetrators don't stay within their home states. They want to go shopping in Europe or go on vacation somewhere, and they get identified, and then the law enforcement is activated. And we are never more integrated than we are now."


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AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnbought Ṁ60 of NO

Seems like the August South Africa BRICS meeting might be where this gets tested. Of course Putin won't be arrested if he goes.

ASomewhatRudeParakeet avatar
A Somewhat Rude Parakeet

Will this resolve as no if Putin leaves Russia once and does not get arrested? Or does it remain open until it's no longer possible for him to be arrested (like if he dies).

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 24%

@ASomewhatRudeParakeet If he leaves Russia and is publicly seen in any countries that are members of the ICC (which includes most of Europe), he should get arrested if the warrant is enforced. If nothing happens to him while he is in those countries, then the market will be resolved as a NO.

ASomewhatRudeParakeet avatar
A Somewhat Rude Parakeetis predicting YES at 21%

@johnleoks I'll take these odds then. Although since Putin can still go to lots of countries (Turkey, India, China, Belarus, Ukraine) my guess is he just won't go to any ICC countries.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 30%