DeSantis is against the U.S. sending Ukraine aid. Will he reverse his position as the 2024 presidential election nears? | Manifold Markets

DeSantis is against the U.S. sending Ukraine aid. Will he reverse his position as the 2024 presidential election nears?

2024

35

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To be clear, DeSantis doesn't have to do a complete 180 on his stance. Currently, he is more on the side of not providing Ukraine aid. If he changes his position to be more on the side of providing Ukraine aid, then this would resolve as a YES.
How do we know if he changes his stance sufficiently? Simple, we go by the concensus of the mainstream media such as NPR, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Washington Post, The Times etc. If the majority of these reputable sources are saying that DeSantis is now mostly on the side of providing Ukraine with aid, then that is what I will base my decision on.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163363579/desantis-trump-ukraine-republican-split

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Quatebought Ṁ20 of NO

Can we tighten these markets to roughly "will there be a logical contradiction between these candidates' prior statements and their future statements"? Each of these candidates left a lot of room for interpretation about exactly how much they are against Ukraine aid.

@Quate Updated description.

Lainan Q. sold Ṁ14 NO from 39% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 YES at 39% (cancelled)

Trong sold Ṁ83 YES from 44% to 37%

Quate sold Ṁ23 NO from 42% to 44%

Jf P bought Ṁ10 YES at 42%

cheese doodle bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 42%

Manu Srinath Halvagal bought Ṁ20 NO from 42% to 41%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ30 NO at 42% (cancelled)

Robert Collins bought Ṁ50 YES from 39% to 43%

WhiteRhino bought Ṁ10 NO at 39%

Kevin Lalik bought Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 39%

John Cunningham bought Ṁ5 YES at 38%

Lainan Q. bought Ṁ15 NO from 39% to 38%

Hunter Johnson bought Ṁ30 NO from 41% to 39%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ17 YES at 41% (cancelled)

Tommy Morriss bought Ṁ100 NO from 48% to 39%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 25%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 59%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 35%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 70%

Daniel evans bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 48%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 49%

RICHARD ZHU bought Ṁ15 NO from 50% to 48%

Will Hardt bought Ṁ40 NO from 56% to 50%

Duddle Sack bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 56%

Jim Ausman bought Ṁ10 NO from 56% to 54%

BCG bought Ṁ10 NO from 58% to 56%

Trong bought Ṁ100 YES from 39% to 58%

Radicalia bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 39%

Nico D bought Ṁ20 NO from 40% to 37%

Андрей Власенко bought Ṁ30 YES from 30% to 40%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ20 YES from 23% to 30%

arctangent bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

Thekla bought Ṁ50 NO from 33% to 24%

yaboi69 bought Ṁ5 NO from 34% to 33%

John Gaius bought Ṁ10 NO from 36% to 34%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 36%

Jeff B.-K. bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 39%

Jeff B.-K. sold Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 43%

Jeff B.-K. bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 49%

johnleoks bought Ṁ10 YES from 36% to 43%

OperationIvy85 bought Ṁ10 NO from 42% to 36%

Quate bought Ṁ20 NO from 59% to 42%

wustep bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

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