will this market be at exactly 50% on february 1?
Resolved
N/A

resolves YES if the market is at 50%. resolves no if it is more or less than 50%. just a silly idea i had

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 9:00 pm

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john egbertbought Ṁ1 of YES

i think the result of this market is a matter of semantics. people are saying that it should be n/a or yes since i said "on feb 1" instead of "at closing".
i have decided to resolve it as yes, since the market was at exactly 50% at some time during feb 1. i dont plan on making any further changes to the result now. :B

@johnegbert you also said "resolves no if it is more or less than 50%."

john egbertsold Ṁ1 of YES

@Cadence should i change the resolution again, so that it will be n/a if it is not 50% at resolution time?

@johnegbert n/a seems the most fair to everyone to me

blue ratbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Cadence i think pretty much everyone who has said something so far has agreed that n/a would be ok, i also think n/a is what is normally done in cases of unclear resolution criteria rather than trying to decide on an the closest interpretation or anything

Abought Ṁ10 of NO

@johnegbert Yeah just N/A it, the resolution criteria have changed too many times, this is a mess now

ok, i'll resolve it now.

the changed market close time proves that the original time was on february 1

we can see in the market description that the close time was changed to "2023-02-01 9:00 pm"

however, if i look at the actual new close time on my client, it is 10:00 pm

this means that my time zone is 1 hour ahead of the creator's

the original close time was february 2, 12:59 am on my client, but since we know my time zone is 1 hour ahead of the creator's, in their time zone it was february 1, 11:59 pm

dear all. i should clarify that i mean YES if the market is at 50% at closing time :B

Pat Myronbought Ṁ7 of YES

@johnegbert should resolve n/a instead of resolving based on the value on February 2nd rather than on February 1st like originally asked

i changed the closing time so that it closes on february 1st now.

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 50%

@johnegbert again, should just resolve n/a instead of picking a new time after trading occurred

Rougeebought Ṁ0 of NO

Seems Pat is more hung up on misunderstanding the wording on the resolution criteria, I guess he wouldn't have invested otherwise?

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 33%

I don't even see how the other meaning could have been logically consistent. How could "will this market be at exactly 50% on february 1?" mean at closing time if closing time was after February 1?

Rougeepredicted NO at 33%

@PatMyron taken literally I can see what you're saying, contextually that doesn't really make much sense for a market/these conditions are usually at market close, isn't the closing time based on the creator's time zone though?

Rougeebought Ṁ10 of NO

@RogerYang for the record idm a n/a resolution

I have no horse in this race but I agree with pat myrons interpretation, should either be resolved yes or n/a

Rougeebought Ṁ8 of NO

@bluerat can always recreate with clarified resolution criteria, don't markets start at 50% though?

Pat Myronbought Ṁ534 of YES

@RogerYang market started at 50%, but the market didn't start on February 1st. Doesn't matter that it started at 50% since it was a previous date

Rougeepredicted NO at 47%

@PatMyron ah gotcha

Rougeepredicted NO at 47%

Not sure why you're betting post clarification though, unless you think the market creator's going to backtrack on his clarification?

resolving yes doesn't make any sense with the description, i'm fine with n/a though

Pat Myronbought Ṁ25 of YES

i forgot that nobody is required to bet yes. this is a bad question isnt it :B
i guess someone could try to get it to 50%?

Pat Myronbought Ṁ1 of NO

@johnegbert it got to exactly 50% on February 1, can resolve YES

@PatMyron the description says "resolves YES if the market is at 50%" which seems to refer specifically to the resolution time

@PatMyron if you interpret it as any time in february 1, then "resolves no if it is more or less than 50%" is a contradiction

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 51%

@Cadence the market closing time is February 2nd, but the market is asking if it'll be at 50% on February 1st, so it doesn't seem to be referring to at closing time