will this market be at exactly 50% on february 1?

john egbert

resolved Feb 1

Meta-Forecasting

Resolved

N/A

ALL

resolves YES if the market is at 50%. resolves no if it is more or less than 50%. just a silly idea i had

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 9:00 pm

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john egbertbought Ṁ1 of YES

i think the result of this market is a matter of semantics. people are saying that it should be n/a or yes since i said "on feb 1" instead of "at closing".
i have decided to resolve it as yes, since the market was at exactly 50% at some time during feb 1. i dont plan on making any further changes to the result now. :B

Cadencebought Ṁ4 of YES

@johnegbert you also said "resolves no if it is more or less than 50%."

john egbertsold Ṁ1 of YES

@Cadence should i change the resolution again, so that it will be n/a if it is not 50% at resolution time?

Cadencepredicted NO at 50%

@johnegbert n/a seems the most fair to everyone to me

blue ratbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Cadence i think pretty much everyone who has said something so far has agreed that n/a would be ok, i also think n/a is what is normally done in cases of unclear resolution criteria rather than trying to decide on an the closest interpretation or anything

Abought Ṁ10 of NO

@johnegbert Yeah just N/A it, the resolution criteria have changed too many times, this is a mess now

john egbert

ok, i'll resolve it now.

Cadencebought Ṁ1 of NO

the changed market close time proves that the original time was on february 1

we can see in the market description that the close time was changed to "2023-02-01 9:00 pm"

however, if i look at the actual new close time on my client, it is 10:00 pm

this means that my time zone is 1 hour ahead of the creator's

the original close time was february 2, 12:59 am on my client, but since we know my time zone is 1 hour ahead of the creator's, in their time zone it was february 1, 11:59 pm

john egbert

dear all. i should clarify that i mean YES if the market is at 50% at closing time :B

Pat Myronbought Ṁ7 of YES

@johnegbert should resolve n/a instead of resolving based on the value on February 2nd rather than on February 1st like originally asked

john egbert

i changed the closing time so that it closes on february 1st now.

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 50%

@johnegbert again, should just resolve n/a instead of picking a new time after trading occurred

Rougeebought Ṁ0 of NO

Seems Pat is more hung up on misunderstanding the wording on the resolution criteria, I guess he wouldn't have invested otherwise?

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 33%

I don't even see how the other meaning could have been logically consistent. How could "will this market be at exactly 50% on february 1?" mean at closing time if closing time was after February 1?

Rougeepredicted NO at 33%

@PatMyron taken literally I can see what you're saying, contextually that doesn't really make much sense for a market/these conditions are usually at market close, isn't the closing time based on the creator's time zone though?

Rougeebought Ṁ10 of NO

@RogerYang for the record idm a n/a resolution

blue rat

I have no horse in this race but I agree with pat myrons interpretation, should either be resolved yes or n/a

Rougeebought Ṁ8 of NO

@bluerat can always recreate with clarified resolution criteria, don't markets start at 50% though?

Pat Myronbought Ṁ534 of YES

@RogerYang market started at 50%, but the market didn't start on February 1st. Doesn't matter that it started at 50% since it was a previous date

Rougeepredicted NO at 47%

@PatMyron ah gotcha

Rougeepredicted NO at 47%

Not sure why you're betting post clarification though, unless you think the market creator's going to backtrack on his clarification?

Cadencepredicted NO at 50%

resolving yes doesn't make any sense with the description, i'm fine with n/a though

Pat Myronbought Ṁ25 of YES

john egbert

i forgot that nobody is required to bet yes. this is a bad question isnt it :B
i guess someone could try to get it to 50%?

Pat Myronbought Ṁ1 of NO

@johnegbert it got to exactly 50% on February 1, can resolve YES

Cadencebought Ṁ55 of YES

@PatMyron the description says "resolves YES if the market is at 50%" which seems to refer specifically to the resolution time

Cadencepredicted NO at 51%

@PatMyron if you interpret it as any time in february 1, then "resolves no if it is more or less than 50%" is a contradiction

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 51%

@Cadence the market closing time is February 2nd, but the market is asking if it'll be at 50% on February 1st, so it doesn't seem to be referring to at closing time

Cadencepredicted NO at 51%

@PatMyron the closing time is february 1 in the creator's time zone

Pat Myronpredicted YES at 51%

@Cadence how can you tell their timezone?

Cadencepredicted NO at 51%

@PatMyron i actually live in a different universe and can view and send messages to any point in your timeline, so i can see that they confirmed it in the future :)