Resolution Criteria

This market resolves "Yes" if Thailand and Cambodia issue a publicly announced, mutually agreed official ceasefire agreement between December 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The ceasefire must be formally declared by both governments (via official statements from government representatives, military leadership, or diplomatic channels) and represent a mutual commitment to halt military engagement.

Resolution sources: Official statements from Thai and Cambodian government ministries, ASEAN announcements, or credible international news reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP, Al Jazeera, BBC).

Background

Thailand and Cambodia declared an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" on July 28, 2025, following talks in Kuala Lumpur, which were mediated by Malaysia and encouraged by the United States and China. However, Thailand suspended the agreement in November after Thai soldiers were wounded by landmines at the border. The ceasefire proved short-lived, with minor skirmishes resuming in November and escalating into major clashes along the border in early December.

The roots of the Thai-Cambodian border conflict lie in a history of enmity over competing territorial claims stemming from a 1907 map created while Cambodia was under French colonial rule, which Thailand maintains is inaccurate. Both countries claim ownership of Preah Vihear, an 11th century Hindu temple on the border. In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled that Preah Vihear fell within the sovereignty of Cambodia.

Considerations

Neither side has independently confirmed the latest agreement announced by Trump on December 12, and neither Thailand nor Cambodia have independently confirmed the deal. Daily fighting has continued since the latest outbreak of violence began, and Bangkok has denied Trump's claim of a truce. The ASEAN-brokered truce did not grapple directly with the border's most contentious segments, and neither Thailand nor Cambodia is prepared to accept a binding demarcation that could be interpreted domestically as giving ground.