Will @jim outperform @Bayesian in forecast2026.ai?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ613Ṁ14k

Dec 31

33%

chance

ALL

Resolves as 'yes' if @jim outperforms @Bayesian on 2026 AI Forecasting Survey

forecast2026.ai

Market context

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

AI Impacts

OpenAI

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

8% chance

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

22% chance

When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters

10/11/28

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

26% chance

Sort by:

opened a Ṁ200 YES at 16% order

Bayesian's Predictions

Jim's Predictions

@jim it won’t even be slightly close

@Bayesian agreed

@bens warning you that some people might suggest that your 15% 'yes' limit order is unwise

opened a Ṁ50,000 NO at 22% order

please someone fill this or tell me at what price you would fill this

@Bayesian I can't fill that now that I've seen his answers, I don't really know how the scoring works but 87% remote work automation and some others are totally unfeasible imo

@Gen 🤫

People are also trading

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

8% chance

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

22% chance

When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters

10/11/28

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

26% chance

People are also trading

People are also trading

Related questions