Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor?
➕
Plus
309
Ṁ330k
resolved May 14
Resolved
NO

Context:

https://twitter.com/kosenjuu/status/1784952955294421215

Resolves YES if "gpt2-chatbot" is confirmed to be GPT-4.5/GPT-5/OpenAI's next big model.

an incrementally-improved gpt-4 model would not count

Model is available on https://chat.lmsys.org/

(click onto the "Direct Chat" tab, then select "gpt2-chatbot" as the model).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I still don't see a source anywhere on gpt2-chatbot = GPT-4o. This market explicitly WASN'T about the bots cited below in sources.

How was this market resolved without a source?

@Cosmic1 https://www.axios.com/2024/05/13/openai-google-chatgpt-ai
Agreed. The mm shared this source below and is taking it as gospel, which is doing a LOT of heavy lifting to support both that 4o is not a "successor" and that gpt2-chatbot is synonymous with "im-also-a-good-gpt2-chatbot." Both these claims appear to be editorialized in ways that are inaccurate.

@Cosmic1 For what it's worth, I have a trick question I ask all the LLMs, and the only ones to recognize the trick are gpt-4o and im-also-a-good-gpt2-chatbot.

im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot got it wrong 4 out of 5 times, so I don't think the latter is GPT-4o. I'm not sure about gpt2-chatbot.

@uwu Why would gpt2-chatbot be synonymous with im-also-a-good-gpt2-chatbot? That one makes little sense.

@uwu I am not taking the article as gospel. Especially not the part about whether it's a successor, which isn't even presented as being something Mira said. The bit about "GPT-4 level intelligence" is the same as in various places in official OpenAI communication, so I take that seriously. The bit about "A more major update to the underlying model" I take seriously but with a pinch of salt.

@jim you still haven't explained why you contradicted yourself in resolving this market...

@Cosmic1 can you explain what your point is? Do you think there's some chance that gpt2-chatbot, despite doing worse on leaderboards etc., actually is GPT-4.5 or GPT-5?

@jim Yeah, where do you see that gpt2-chatbot was doing worse on the leaderboards?

oh interesting thanks. Never saw that

@jim Even GPT-4o is not GPT-4's successor; it's about the same:

As measured on traditional benchmarks, GPT-4o achieves GPT-4 Turbo-level performance on text, reasoning, and coding intelligence

I've never seen such a dense mm.

@uwu please be logic

@jim You don't seem to be open to persuasion by logic.

@uwu things aren't always as they seem. I'm happy to issue everyone refunds if someone points out some crucial thing i am missing or some error in reasoning i have made

some info I‘ve seen (just posting to add context, pls correct if wrong):

  • gpt-4o is a light(er)weight version of this model

  • gpt-3.5 is a fine tune of gpt-3, gpt-4o is trained from scratch

i think this was supposed to be resolved as yes since they used gpt2 as the nickname for benchmarking the new model. ping me if u want me to find the source @jim

@Peter1169

"An incrementally-improved gpt-4 model would not count."

Doesn't imply that all things which are not just incrementally-improved GPT-4 models do count.

This resolved NO because GPT-4o is not GPT-4's successor. It's roughly equal in intelligence and is branded as GPT-4, and seems an extremely similar model, quite like turbo was.

@jim

https://platform.openai.com/docs/models

OpenAI regards GPT-4o as their flagship model and GPT-4 Turbo as "previous".

A +50 ELO increase is not "roughly equal in intelligence." It is not a next-level frontier model like GPT-5 will be, but everything points to GPT-4o as a GPT-4 successor in the same way a "GPT-4.5" would have been. Other markets also regard GPT-4o as equivalent to GPT-4.5.

GPT-4o was trained from scratch to be end-to-end. It is not a jump like GPT-4 to GPT-4 Turbo but more like a GPT-4.5 and definitely a GPT-4 successor (not an iterative improvement).

@Peter1169

new flagship model

I agree it's their new flagship GPT-4 model (or GPT-4 level model, depending on your interpretation). But this market isn't meant to resolve YES on a GPT-4 model, nor a GPT-4 level model.

not roughly equal in intelligence

I think it's roughly equal. OpenAI thinks its roughly equal.

Other markets also regard GPT-4o as equivalent to GPT-4.5.

Some based on faulty reasoning, some on correct reasoning from very different resolution criteria. My traders are lucky I thought through everything carefully and reached a solid conclusion, rather than outsourcing the resolution to less careful people.

for the people who want a second coming, I'll review all best arguments of evidence, including the poll closing next sunday. https://manifold.markets/StephenMWalkerII/is-gpt2chatbot-gpt4s-successor

Comment hidden
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules