Jul 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is formally nominated by the Democratic National Committee as the Democratic presidential candidate by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

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@ManifoldPolitics this is a market that could maybe do with an upgrade

it's ok I will provide all the liquidity for anyone who wants to bet yes

Note they have to nominate Biden early to meet Ohio’s August 7 ballot deadline. So one possibility is July 21 when the dnc credentialing committee is already scheduled to meet virtually.

This is no longer true, Ohio moved the deadline to September. Edit: Although that is why they scheduled the virtual meeting, so it might still happen.

Thanks for this update!

bought Ṁ250 NO

How exactly is Biden going to be nominated early? The panic is receding and what else is better than getting to the stable and predicted pathways? Nominating early would only highlight the issue and if it is not strictly necessary it won't be done

About a week ago there was chatter that the Democrats would push to formally nominate Biden early (through some technical loophole) so as to end discussion about his resignation.

Exactly - last week. That is like a century ago in the news cycle. No imminent threat anymore, no need to rush things anymore.

Yeah, it seems much less likely now.

That's my point..why does this market spike then on the news that Biden team put out a letter?

What is the purpose of the Democratic convention if not to nominate a candidate?

bought Ṁ50 YES

extremely strange—does this basically rule out an open convention? or what am I missing?

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 40% order

It's bluster, distraction, a bluff

When would he usually be nominated?

The Democratic Party will hold their national convention for the 2024 presidential election from August 19 to August 22, 2024

Normally it would happen then

Edit - posted above

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