Tesla takes stake in Archer Aviation this year?
3
100Ṁ80
Dec 31
24%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if, between 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2025 and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, Tesla, Inc. (or a wholly owned subsidiary) closes an equity investment in Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) and this is publicly confirmed by at least one of:

    • An Archer SEC filing (e.g., 8-K/10-Q/10-K) or Archer press release naming Tesla as an investor. Examples of where to check: Archer IR news and recent 8-Ks. (investors.archer.com)

    • A Tesla SEC filing (e.g., 8-K/10-Q) or Tesla IR press release confirming the investment. Examples of where to check: Tesla IR press page and recent 8-Ks. (ir.tesla.com)

    • A filed Schedule 13D/13G showing Tesla as a beneficial owner of ACHR. Background on 5% reporting threshold: SEC Reg 13D‑G. (sec.gov)

  • “Stake” means issued equity securities in Archer (common/preferred/warrants/convertibles) that have closed and been issued by 12/31/2025. Announced but unclosed deals or non‑equity partnerships do not count. Investments by Elon Musk personally or by non‑Tesla entities (e.g., SpaceX, X Corp.) do not count.

  • If no qualifying public confirmation by the sources above is available by the deadline, resolves NO.

Background

  • Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) is an eVTOL developer. Its 2025 financing disclosures list investors such as BlackRock‑managed accounts and, earlier, United Airlines, Stellantis, Wellington, and Abu Dhabi’s 2PointZero; Tesla is not mentioned in these rounds. (reuters.com)

  • Archer routinely discloses strategic investors and major financings via its IR news page and SEC filings. (investors.archer.com)

Considerations

  • Because Schedule 13D/13G filings are only required at >5% beneficial ownership, a very small open‑market purchase by Tesla could be undisclosed unless either company announces it. This market therefore requires explicit company confirmation or a regulatory filing to avoid ambiguity. (sec.gov)

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