emcemc's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.54
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when emcemc bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
- Will the 'Will the LK-99 room, ... replicate before 2025?' question by Quantum Observer resolve 6 months from now?NOṀ20
- Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2023?NOṀ5
10%
20%
40%
50%
- Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before the end of 2023?YESṀ50
- Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its description?YESṀ40
- Will my scooter be stolen (again) in 2023?YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?YESṀ441
- Will narrow super human AI's maintain the edge over more generalist AIs in chess until the end of 2023?YESṀ400
- Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?YESṀ109
97%