Will I lose four kilograms of weight, put on during my holiday, in the next 12 weeks?
88%
chance
This question resolves to YES if my set of scales report myself as having a body weight equal to or less than 64.3kg before the end of the 28th of August, London time, given my weigh in this morning at 68.3kg.
During my recent two week holiday I (expectedly) put back on some weight with the intent of (re)losing this weight afterwards. This question is a bet about whether that will happen fairly quickly.
I'd previously peaked around 85kg before dropping down to the 61-65kg range during 2020 and staying roughly in that range since; Fitbit reports my average weight in the past year as 63.1kg. Directly prior to the holiday I measured at 64kg.
Self-trading policy: I'm going to be making bets only in the YES direction on this market.
I'm not doing the potato diet, but I have a baseline diet of varied soups, diet ice creams, calorie-controlled ready meals, yogurts, and various other things at <=100kcal/100g. I usually then add additional diet on top of the baseline, consisting of delicious meals I want to try, when I'm not trying to run a deficit, and in principle not doing that and reverting to baseline should be enough.
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