In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps?
14
15
1K
resolved Apr 29
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to YES if in the glowfic continuity "planecrash", one of the conspirators in Project Lawful deliberately reveals the conspiracy to Keltham, attempts to do so, or is removed from the project or has their participation in the project reduced (e.g. removed from classes but remaining on site) in order to prevent them from doing so, and it is not part of a plan that Security is aligned with (e.g. the drilled have-Keltham-take-them-with-him plan), prior to the start of Day 47. The start of Day 47 is confirmed to have occurred if a tag being posted containing the Day 47 PL timestamp or a later timestamp, and this timestamp is not a hypothetical, temporary flash forward, or otherwise false. It is also considered to have occurred if narrative describes a sequence of day/night cycles, seasons, or years since the previous PL timestamp tag that would correspond to passing the start of the 47th actual day., and this is also not hypothetical, a temporary flash forward, or otherwise false. Whether a start of Day 47 was hypothetical, a temporary flash forward, or otherwise false is determined by waiting 48 real world hours for any return to previous time or confirmation of its hypothetical nature. If this time passes, the start of Day 47 is considered confirmed. If this time passes and then the described events are revealed to be hypothetical, a flash forward, or false, it's too late- this market still resolves as though Day 47 started at that point in the thread. This market resolves NO if the start of Day 47 is confirmed to have occurred prior to the conditions for the market resolving YES occurring. It will also resolve NO if Keltham discovers or identifies the conspiracy in some other way and reveals this knowledge to the conspirators as a whole, as it is then no longer possible for them to reveal or attempt to reveal the conspiracy to him. This market resolves N/A if: - There is a timeskip of unknown duration prior to the conditions for YES resolution being satisified, and within the next 48 real world hours no further timestamp or other tag allows us to place whether Day 47 started prior to the conditions being met or not. - We reach 1st January 2023 and the conditions for NO and YES resolution are both not met. This would occur if we didn't progress 30 days in the story by then, or if the continuity was abandoned. Own trading policy: I may trade on this market. I have no reason to believe I have insider information on this market. Mar 17, 12:36am: "What if the conspirator who is removed from the project has never even interacted with Keltham"; in principle this could count but they'd need to be "a conspirator". I would not count an infiltrator, but in principle, say, a character at the hidden real Asmodean temple who had not in fact met Keltham, or someone who started out loyal, got through their first day with Asmodia, and immediately decided they wanted to break the conspiracy would count. Mar 17, 12:36am: I do not think the above is an at all likely way for this to resolve, but the wording does not technically preclude it and I'd abide by that.
Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ174
2Ṁ102
3Ṁ44
4Ṁ8
5Ṁ5
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
Give it up for day 49
bought Ṁ500 of NO
Day 43.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Is now day 20
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Is now day 19
bought Ṁ20 of NO
What if the conspirator who is removed from the project has never even interacted with Keltham?
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Another market: https://manifold.markets/hamnox/how-will-the-conspiracy-be-revealed
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Not seeing major signs of this yet, although it could happen with a new student. Potential for another good market: If this resolves yes, who is it?