John Beshir's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when John Beshir bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
- "Water, sanitation and hygiene (“WASH”) interventions as a cause area" by helmetedhornbillNOṀ3
- "Modernizing the Social Science Research Infrastructure" by yfuNOṀ2
- "Cause exploration: Tobacco harm reduction" by kristofNOṀ2
- "Tuberculosis" by jservNOṀ2
- "Sickle Cell Disease" by Open PhilanthropyYESṀ2
- Will Russia invade Ukraine 17-02-2022 (Ukraine local time)NOṀ2
- "Promoting climate considerations within existing high priority areas of work" by helmetedhornbillNOṀ1
- "Resilience & Biodiversity" by emwalzNOṀ1
- "Potential Risks of Advanced Gene Editing Technologies" by Courtney ColstonNOṀ1
- "Creating a “regulatory turbocharger” for EA relevant policies" by Open PhilanthropyNOṀ1
10%
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ1,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ500
- Will we fund "Brain-inspired AGI"?NOṀ330
- Will we fund "Brain-inspired AGI"?NOṀ300
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ300
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ300
- Will this d10 come up 1?YESṀ120
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ100
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ100
- Will SBF return to the US by the end of 2022?YESṀ85
20%
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ3,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ3,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ1,500
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ1,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ1,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ1,000
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ600
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ500
- Will we fund "Curiosity Fellowship"?NOṀ100
- Will we fund "Opinion Dynamics with AI"?NOṀ40
30%
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ1,500
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ500
- Will we fund "Federal AI Regulation"?NOṀ200
- Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister next week?YESṀ100
- In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps?NOṀ100
- Will we fund "Opinion Dynamics with AI"?NOṀ100
- Will we fund "Curiosity Fellowship"?NOṀ100
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ100
- Will we fund "Extending cause prioritization research to the behavioral sciences"?YESṀ55
- Will we fund "Pandemic Prevention Pledge"?NOṀ50
40%
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ6,000
- [Emotional Insurance] Will Orlando City SC win the US Open Cup Final against lower division side Sacramento Republic FC?YESṀ1,768
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ1,000
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ400
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ200
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test in 2022?NOṀ100
- Will we fund "Extending cause prioritization research to the behavioral sciences"?YESṀ100
- Will we fund "Curiosity Fellowship"?NOṀ100
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ100
50%
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ10,000
- Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?YESṀ5,000
- Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?YESṀ4,000
- Will Midnight the stray cat allow humans to pet her by April 1st, 2022NOṀ1,000
- Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?NOṀ900
- Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?NOṀ500
- Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?NOṀ500
- Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?NOṀ300
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023?NOṀ200
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ200
60%
- Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?YESṀ10,823
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ1,000
- Will Russia be disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April?YESṀ630
- Will we fund "The Adversarial Collaboration Project"?YESṀ300
- Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022?NOṀ200
- Will SBF return to the US by the end of 2022?YESṀ200
- Will we fund "EA Explorable Explanations"?YESṀ200
- Will we fund "EA Explorable Explanations"?YESṀ200
- Will we fund "EA Explorable Explanations"?YESṀ200
- Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?YESṀ200
70%
- Will we fund "The Adversarial Collaboration Project"?YESṀ1,000
- Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?NOṀ1,000
- Will we fund "Rethink Priorities (Survey Team)"?YESṀ1,000
- Will we fund "The Adversarial Collaboration Project"?YESṀ1,000
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ500
- Will we fund "The Adversarial Collaboration Project"?YESṀ300
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ300
- Will we fund "EA Explorable Explanations"?YESṀ300
- Will the Ukrainian-Russian war escalate by March 31st?YESṀ300
- Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?YESṀ300
80%
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ2,000
- Will Ukraine regain control of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ800
- Will we fund "The Adversarial Collaboration Project"?YESṀ500
- Is Albe from "a dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court" really Queen Abrogail in disguise?YESṀ500
- Will 80k stop listing OpenAI capabilities roles on their jobs board by end of 2022?NOṀ500
- Will the Ukraine take back Kherson anytime before the end of 2022?YESṀ500
- Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close by October 31?YESṀ500
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ400
- Will we fund the "National Student Forecasting Tournament"?YESṀ300
- Will we fund the "Stanford Biosecurity Center"?YESṀ200
90%
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ2,000
- Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister next week?YESṀ1,000
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022YESṀ1,000
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ1,000
- Is Albe from "a dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court" really Queen Abrogail in disguise?YESṀ523
- Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?YESṀ400
- Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?YESṀ400
- Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?YESṀ400
- Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Prime Minister after Liz Truss?YESṀ300
- Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?YESṀ250
95%
- [planecrash] Gur pbairefngvba orgjrra Xrygunz naq gur cvg svryq jnf n cresbeznapr sbe NoebtnvyYESṀ5,388
- Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?YESṀ3,000
- Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC time.YESṀ1,002
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
- Will Twitter roll back its no competitor social media policy before the end of 2022?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022?YESṀ1,000
- Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?YESṀ1,000
97%
- Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?YESṀ5,000
- Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?YESṀ3,000
- Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?YESṀ3,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ2,100
- Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?YESṀ2,000
- Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?YESṀ2,000
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?YESṀ1,000
99%
- Will this market have at least M$31,415 invested into it by Pi Day (March 14th)?YESṀ31,415
- Will this market have M$15,000 invested by February 25th?YESṀ15,000
- Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?YESṀ11,000
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ10,000
- Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15?YESṀ10,000
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ8,000
- Will the Musk Twitter deal close by the end of 2023?YESṀ5,000
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ5,000
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ5,000
- Will Planecrash continue before 2023-02-15?YESṀ4,000