# John Beshir's calibration

Grade: B, Score: -2.31

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when John Beshir bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

3%

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ6,000
- [Emotional Insurance] Will Orlando City SC win the US Open Cup Final against lower division side Sacramento Republic FC?YESṀ1,768
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ1,000

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

- [planecrash] Gur pbairefngvba orgjrra Xrygunz naq gur cvg svryq jnf n cresbeznapr sbe NoebtnvyYESṀ5,388
- Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?YESṀ3,000
- Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC time.YESṀ1,002

97%