John Beshir's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.31
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when John Beshir bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.Ṁ6,000
- [Emotional Insurance] Will Orlando City SC win the US Open Cup Final against lower division side Sacramento Republic FC?Ṁ1,768
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?Ṁ1,000
- [planecrash] Gur pbairefngvba orgjrra Xrygunz naq gur cvg svryq jnf n cresbeznapr sbe NoebtnvyṀ5,388
- Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?Ṁ3,000
- Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC time.Ṁ1,002