Background

President Trump has promised vigorous immigration enforcement including the largest mass deportation in history. Many strongly Trump-supporting states have substantial undocumented populations and state governments that support aggressive immigration enforcement.

Resolution Criteria

For each state listed, the market will resolve YES if official government data shows that at least 50,000 undocumented immigrants were removed from the area of responsibility of ICE field offices in that that state during FY 2025 (October 1, 2024 - September 30, 2025). Resolution will be based on (a) Official Department of Homeland Security (DHS) removal statistics if available, (b) compilations based on official records such as those maintained by TRAC, (c) credible media reports. Note that some field offices (e.g. Louisiana) have areas of responsibility covering multiple states, and all removals from those field offices will be counted for the state where the field office is located.

Considerations

• Removals to-date under the Biden administration within FY2025 will count towards the total

• Proposed changes to immigration enforcement could significantly impact removal numbers, including potential use of emergency powers and military resources

• State sanctuary laws may affect the ability to reach 50,000 removals in some jurisdictions

• Data reporting delays could affect resolution timing

• I will attempt to resolve whenever credible data becomes available showing that the 50,000 level has been reached, or that this level has not been reached by the end of the fiscal year

• Companion question for Blue states here: https://manifold.markets/jb456/which-of-the-following-blue-states