This market resolves as YES if, at any point during our travel from the state where we currently live to the state where we will be living to attend grad school, my partner or I personally experience transphobia. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO upon us moving into our new apartment.

Because driving from our current state to our future state would take 38 hours of driving going only through blue states versus about 21 hours going mostly through red states, we'll almost certainly end up driving through some combination of two to four red states, all of which are among the most conservative places in the country. In particular, it is illegal for me to use the women's bathroom in one of the states, and probably illegal in another. The remaining states are highly conservative, which means even if I can't be arrested for using the women's bathroom, I'm at an elevated risk of being yelled at, chased out, threatened with violence, etc.

My partner is nonbinary, but is not visibly trans. I pass as a woman most of the time, but not always (and as I live in a progressive area, it's entirely possible that people have been "clocking" me as a trans woman and referring to me with the correct pronouns out of respect.)

This market resolves as YES using a common-sense definition of transphobia. That is to say: something must happen that causes me physical harm or significant emotional distress/dysphoria, and it must be a direct result of anti-trans policies or someone openly discriminating against me because I am trans. Possible YES resolutions include:

• Being arrested or harassed for using the bathroom that conforms with my gender identity rather than my sex assigned at birth

• Being forced to use the bathroom that conforms with my sex assigned at birth due to fear of being arrested (being harassed is quite likely; as I said, I typically pass as a woman.)

• Verbal abuse from a stranger because I am trans - could include slurs, mockery, etc. (NOTE: This only counts verbal abuse directed at me or my partner from someone who is physically nearby; random transphobic comments on my social media, random transphobic texts, etc. do not count.)

• Physical abuse from a stranger because I am trans - includes any action taken to harm me or my property (would include someone keying my car etc.)

• In the (hopefully very, very unlikely) event that I am literally murdered as a result of transphobic violence, this market resolves as YES.

Verbal or physical abuse that is not provably tied to my status as a trans woman - e.g. being honked at, having non-discriminatory insults yelled at me, being punched for apparently no reason - are not sufficient for a YES resolution unless I have strong reason to believe they happened as a direct result of me being trans.

If an incident sufficient for a YES resolution occurs, I will post a short summary of the incident in the comments shortly after resolving YES. I probably won't be able to provide proof, so you'll need to trust me. To ensure I have no incentive to lie, I won't bet on this market and will have no personal stake in its outcome (other than obviously hoping it resolves as NO.)

The close date is set to August 28, since that's when my partner and I will be moving in to our new apartment. It's very possible that this market might resolve a day or so in advance of that.