This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump, between 2016 and his death, is the Republican nominee in every presidential election. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
More specifically:
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump dies between May of 2023 and the 2024 Republican National Convention.
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2024 and dies before the 2028 Republican National Convention; the same holds for following election cycles, e.g. being the nominee in 2028 and dying before the 2032 RNC, etc.
This market resolves as YES if the Republican Party ceases to exist, and Donald Trump was the nominee in every election from 2016 until the party's dissolution. In the event that the party changes its name but remains otherwise identical, it will be considered to be the same party.
This market resolves as YES if, for any reason, the 2024 presidential election and subsequent presidential elections are not held at all during Donald Trump's lifetime (or the 2028 election and future elections if Trump is the nominee in 2024, etc.)
This market resolves as NO upon it becoming mathematically impossible for Donald Trump to be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party - i.e. upon it becoming impossible for Trump to win a majority of delegates at the RNC. This could happen via Trump not running in the Republican primaries, or Trump entering the primaries too late for it to matter (e.g. in April 2028.)
This market may also resolve as NO if something happens that impairs Donald Trump from running for office, but does not kill him - e.g. being barred from seeking office by the Supreme Court*, being barred from accumulating delegates by the RNC, being in a coma or other prolonged state of unconsciousness less than three months before, or contracting a highly terminal illness more than one year prior to the next Republican National Convention.
*I specify Supreme Court because a lower court could theoretically have its ruling overturned, which means a NO resolution would be premature and potentially a misresolution. My assumption is that a Supreme Court ruling on the matter would be final.
Another way of thinking about this question is: will Donald Trump be the main/most powerful figure in Republican politics for the rest of his life, regardless of his age?
Please don't carry out any assassinations to influence the outcome of this market.
1,000
3.00Please clarify the resolution of this market if the RNC does not happen, such as if the Republican party disbands, or if two different events happen and both claim to be the successor to or continuation of the RNC, such as if the Republican party splits roughly evenly. While these outcomes are not likely in the near future, this market could extend for decades.
Fun question. Voting no because a) I think there’s a decent chance he’s not the nominee this year, b) if he’s president in 2024, it’s unlikely he gets an amendment added to legally run again, c) if he loses in 2024, id argue it’s more likely than not that someone else is the nominee in 2028, d) he’s got genetics on his side. Both his parents lived long lives.
I think most likely he'll lose 2024 and not be nominated again for 2028.
And if he wins, he won't be able to run again anyways. So the question is basically rather 'will Trump die in the next 5 years', right?
29% is still too high for that imo.
@Felle According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
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his chance of death in the next 5 years is about 27% (without taking into account his specific health)