This market resolves to the party that wins the 2024 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey.

Additional context

New Jersey has been a solidly blue state since the 1990s, but Democratic Senator Bob Menendez has a long history of questionable behavior that may have caught up with him:

• 2015: Indicted on federal corruption charges.

• 2018: Charges dropped; jury unable to reach a verdict. Severely admonished by Senate ethics committee. Wins re-election by a margin of 11.2 points (down from about 19 points in 2012.)

• 2023: Indicted on federal corruption charges (again.)

Has Menendez tarnished his image - and his party's - badly enough that it will cost the Democrats a Senate seat? It seems quite unlikely, especially since New Jersey will almost certainly vote for the Democratic presidential nominee by at least 10 points in 2024, but it's theoretically possible. Menendez is one of a small number of Senators who would actually help their party by resigning instead of running for re-election.

Fine print

I will resolve this market upon the Senate race being called by the Associated Press, unless there's reason to believe the call was premature (i.e. polls were close and the candidate who the race was called for only holds a narrow lead at the time of calling) in which case I will wait for the other major candidate to concede before resolving the market.

Any candidate who is not a Democrat or Republican winning the election causes this market to resolve as "Other," including the case in which an independent candidate wins while pledging to caucus with either the Democratic or Republican party.

This market closes at midnight Pacific time on Election Day, and in all likelihood will be resolved less than 24 hours later.