This market resolves to the percentage of women on Manifold who identify as trans in any high-quality survey of the site's users.
A "high-quality survey" should have some method of ensuring that only one response is entered per user, or at least making it moderately difficult to enter multiple responses per user, e.g. via Google Forms requiring a unique email address for each response. It should also have a sample size of at least 50 users, and at least 10 of them should identify as women.
The survey's responses should have some method of distinguishing between trans women and cis women - for example:
A "Gender" question thats answers include both "trans woman" and "cis woman," only one of which can be selected
A "Gender" question where "woman" can be selected and a "Do you identify as trans?" question where "yes" can be selected, with individual survey answers being readable to determine whoat percentage of women selected "yes" on the trans question
A "Gender" question where "woman" and "transgender" are both options and can be selected simultaneously
In any case, the market resolves to the percentage of survey respondents who identify as women who also identify as trans. If a survey had 12 responses from women, nine of which were trans and three of which were cis, then this market would resolve as PROB 75%.
I'm operating under the honor rule here, and assuming that people won't be lying about their gender on surveys for internet points (even though nothing is stopping them, there's also not much of an incentive to.)
This market remains open until such a survey is conducted.
1,000@MilfordHammerschmidt Is this supposed to be some sort of transphobic comment or something
"Are you a programmer?"
"How many hoodies do you own?"
"Do you have at least one Blahaj?"
"What would you rate Fallout: New Vegas on a scale of one to ten?"
@JackGaller Us being way more online is definitely a big factor here. Manifold is also really big among techies, and from anecdotal experience, there's a lot of trans women in tech.
Also, there might be a slight feedback loop/snowball effect, where trans women flock to sites where there's a lot of other trans women.
@evergreenemily Alright. I think amount of Proof School responses is pretty relevant to this market then; I mentioned this elsewhere, but adoption of Manifold at Proof (where it’s used a bit more like social media) is widespread and doesn’t really have a gender skew. So if there was a lot of sampling from that group, this would probably be like 10%
@blackle Same. But it feels like almost every woman on this site is trans, or at least basically all of the ones I can think of...