This market resolves to the percentage of men on Manifold who identify as trans in any high-quality survey of the site's users.

A "high-quality survey" should have some method of ensuring that only one response is entered per user, or at least making it moderately difficult to enter multiple responses per user, e.g. via Google Forms requiring a unique email address for each response. It should also have a sample size of at least 50 users.

The survey's responses should have some method of distinguishing between trans men and cis men - for example:

• A "Gender" question thats answers include both "trans man" and "cis man," only one of which can be selected

• A "Gender" question where "man" can be selected and a "Do you identify as trans?" question where "yes" can be selected, with individual survey answers being readable to determine whoat percentage of men selected "yes" on the trans question

• A "Gender" question where "man" and "transgender" are both options and can be selected simultaneously

In any case, the market resolves to the percentage of survey respondents who identify as men who also identify as trans. If a survey had 100 responses from men, ten of which were trans and ninety of which were cis, this market would resolve as PROB 10%.

I'm operating under the honor rule here, and assuming that people won't be lying about their gender on surveys for internet points (even though nothing is stopping them, there's also not much of an incentive to.)

This market remains open until such a survey is conducted.