This market resolves as YES if, on or before December 31, 2023, I am able to create a multi choice market in which some choices can resolve before others. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO.
This could be useful for questions about when a specific thing could happen - for instance, I have a market asking when the next Pokemon Presents will air, and it would be convenient to be able to resolve "June 2023" to NO at the end of June 2023, "July 2023" to NO at the end of July 2023, and so on. It could also be useful for markets like "who will run for President in 2028" - choices about specific candidates could be resolved as YES upon the announcement of their campaigns while other choices remain open, for example.
Currently, this is possible on Metaculus, but not on Manifold. I am not a web developer, and I have no idea if this is possible or feasible to implement on this site. It would be cool, but I won't be upset if it can't be done.
This market resolves as YES even if the feature is later removed (for bugginess or other reasons), as long as I can create at least one market that meets the criteria at some point in 2023.
I will not bet on this market, aside from an initial 20 mana on NO as insurance, which I will not sell prior to the market resolving.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ229 | |
| 2 | Ṁ55 | |
| 3 | Ṁ27 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
Arbitrage: this market (currently at 59%) and the cumulative probability of Manifold allowing users to partially resolve multiple choice markets at some point in 2023 in the embedded market (currently at 47%; was 40% when I started typing this comment) are asking about the same thing. That's a difference of 12 percentage points, so one of these markets is way off.
Edit: never mind, they're not quite predicting the same thing. The embedded market should definitely be lower than this is.
@evergreenemily In all seriousness, this is a feature Metaculus has that I'd really like to see over here. I have a few markers - e.g. "what will appear in the TOTK DLC?" - that would really benefit from me being able to resolve some options as YES early (the market remains open until I can play through the DLC, so I don't miss anything that's not announced, but a significant portion of the choices could resolve YES months in advance because of trailers, so keeping them open is pointless.) Because I can't do that, my only options are to make a bunch of nearly exactly identical markets (expensive, time-consuming) or to let some already-decided choices remain open for a long time. Similarly, if I were to make a "which states will pass a policy that does X by Y date" market, it would be convenient to be able to resolve states to YES once the criteria are met instead of months or even years afterwards. And on and on.
TL;DR being able to resolve parts of a question early instead of having to resolve the whole thing at once is really useful, actually. I take advantage of it in most of the private Metaculus markets I make, and the fact that I can't do it here is inconvenient.