Will Twitter rename in a week [Musk tweeted]?
resolved Jul 28

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 - And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds

Does he mean it?

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predicted YES

I kind of want to compensate YES holders who sold because they weren't sure about resolution for mana, but am not sure how precisely to do that, thoughts?

@jacksonpolack i think in general it's desirable to be as specific as possible on the resolution criteria when creating a market. Especially in cases (like this one) where there's inherent ambiguity between outcomes. Ofc you can rarely cover all contingencies, but seems like the market description can be edited at any point(?)

predicted NO

@dereify Tricky to know when to edit The description in a way that’s not premature or too late or causes further ambiguity. @jacksonpolack ’s reasons made sense but if he’d amended he description to something like “>50% changed” that would still involve some element of judgement and lack of certainty for market participants.

bought Ṁ12,000 of YES

resolves YES

TechCrunch: As Twitter destroys its brand by renaming itself X, Mastodon user numbers are again soaring

Time: Twitter Users Criticize Elon Musk's Rebrand to 'X'

CNBC: Musk explains why he’s rebranding Twitter to X

CNN: Elon Musk rebrands Twitter as X

The Verge: Twitter is being rebranded as X

The android app is now named X

The @twitter account is now renamed to x, with bio "This account is no longer active. Follow @x". The @x account now has all of the followers and tweets of the old account.

The only argument against it is that the 'twitter' name remains in multiple places on the website - the login page, the 'search twitter' field, various business pages, the url. Nevertheless, I think if you had to say if twitter was 'more than 50% renamed' or 'less than 50% renamed' at the moment, it's clearly > 50%. And given the best explanation for the inconsistent branding is that this was unplanned or poorly planned and implemented suddenly by Elon - that doesn't signal a lack of commitment to the rename.

Notably, if this resolved NO, I think that'd be unfair, and not what I / we were predicting a week ago. If this resolves YES, by contrast, it makes sense.

So this resolves YES

bought Ṁ40 of YES

The android app updated to X / X Corp.

Bookmark on web browser shows as

predicted YES

the issue is that the twitter name is still used in many places on the twitter website. in particular the title is 'Twitter/X', in addition to twitter still showing in the search field,

predicted YES

oh I was planning to resolve this YES but I see the problem now hm

predicted YES

wait why is this at 78%??

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack I think it's at 78% because folks aren't sure what you're going to do. To me it looks like the site is now named X, as reflected in the name and URL linked at https://twitter.com/@x. There are a lot of changes to be made but it seems clear that the intent is for the platform to identify itself as X, and the developers just need some time to bring things in sync with the new reality.

If you're setting the criteria as requiring every instance of the old name to be removed from the interface and documentation, I expect this market will drop a lot.

predicted YES

Resolving? @jacksonpolack

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@SirCryptomind Login page still says "twitter".

predicted YES

@VitorBosshard Logo has changed, I think it is just dev work getting twitter name switched to X.com or 𝕏

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@SirCryptomind that logic doesn't make any sense to me. Everything is "just dev work". Did the name change happen? no! so why are you pushing for a resolution while posting only partial screenshots?

predicted NO

@VitorBosshard full screenshots for reference. Clearly says "twitter"

bought Ṁ100 of YES

What's the resolution criteria? Seems like it's official already?

@Daniel_MC I think the creator is just asleep or working based on their trade activity.

predicted YES

It's funny how the logo is just a unicode character: 𝕏 (blackboard bold X). Saves on logo design I guess 🤷

bought Ṁ500 of YES

x.com now goes to twitter.com. "Twitter" is not visible on the web page. All instances have been replaced with "X".

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau Not super-important, but the name "Twitter" still appears in the sidebar link to "Twitter Blue" for me.

sold Ṁ105 of YES

@NLeseul Gotta give Devs time to update code!