This is Ep 1
Resolves immediately when it goes over or NO a week after it's posted
I would've done "video views" but 'video views' doesn't seem to be public anymore
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With only one data point for favorites/likes - today (posted July 20 night time, so it has been about 7 days so far), combined with his other other earlier videos that all have 500K likes (and 12 days after Ep. 4, it has >500K), I think it is very likely it will reach >500k in the next ~11 days (July 8 morning) I am betting YES it will reach 500k by closing time which is an additional ~11days. If I am wrong I expect it will be because there is some other major news event that sucks all the attention away from people following his tweets.
read the description, it resolves NO a week after the video is posted, which as you see is today, i'll let you sell. the close date is farther out because i make these markets well before the videos are posted, so i dont know when they're posted
I also do not think it will reach 500k in the next two weeks
@jacksonpolack It might be useful in the future to modify the closing date once tweets/videos gets posted for these types of questions so (sometimes) careless people like myself don't get it mixed up.
@jacksonpolack There was two signs I missed (excluding just skimming the description and not reading carefully) - 1) I misinterpreted your bet as this story dying out with events in Russia dominating the news cycle, which did not give me enough pause. I also was momentarily confused how large the NO bet was and how very strange it was with so much time left and the other video like counts, that sign of strangeness I definitely should have thought about more in terms of me making a mistake.