I'll mostly only take into account arguments either side actually made.

I think Connor is much more correct than Beff, but that isn't actually very correlated with who makes better arguments in an individual debate. I still expect a NO here though based on what i've seen of both arguments.

I will bet on this, but am very willing to lose because that makes it more interesting.

There's no other default NO bias here - if it's about the same, i'll try to figure out who was slightly ahead.