What will Astral Codex Ten post about in 2024?
Basic
26
Ṁ2699Jan 1
87%
A post about any psychiatric medication, or a specific class of psychiaric medications
50%
Yet another post in the Bay Area House Party series
Resolved
YESHumorous post about Trump or Biden or the presidential election
Resolved
YESAn explicit endorsement or anti-endorsement in the presidential election
Resolved
YESAnother post in the Bay Area House Party series
Resolved
YESsignificant progress towards publishing UNSONG (hopium) (any mention)
Resolved
YESAnnouncement of Unsong being published (any mention)
Resolved
YESCovid Lab Leak theory
Must be part of the main topic of a post, unless otherwise specificed in the option. Funny options are fine.
I expect some of these to be subjective judgement calls! If I bet on something and it's disputed I'll consult with other moderators before resolving it.
Only posts after the time of posting ("Book Review Contest Rules 2024") count.
Private posts count
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bought Ṁ200 YES23d
"An explicit endorsement or anti-endorsement in the presidential election" should resolve YES. He endorsed Harris.
Link: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/acx-endorses-harris-oliver-or-stein
Quote:
If you’re in a swing state, we recommend you vote Harris; if a safe state, Harris or your third-party candidate of choice.
bought Ṁ420 YES8mo
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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