[twitter] Will I believe the survey "1/3 of Gen Z supports government installing cameras in every house" in two months?
resolved Aug 9

This is a copy of this market but longer-term. It also tests if i'm "calibrated", so I'll bet it down to 2% and you can try to convince me otherwise.

Tweet: "Nearly a third of Gen Z support the government installing surveillance cameras in every household  to prevent crime and abuse. Opposition to Orwelian-government monitoring has been assumed to be both overwhelming and obvious. But is it?"

Resolves to YES if I believe the survey's picked up on a real trend, NO if not, and PROB if unsure. It will probably resolve PROB though so if you convince me to be more uncertain and buy at 2% you can still double your money!

Source: https://twitter.com/emilyekins/status/1665729606379360261

Feel free to try to persuade me in the comments

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predicted NO

A month ago I came across someone else claiming the results were implausible with some evidence and it seemed reasonable, I don't think anyone's interested in this enough for a more detailed explanation

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack quite interested actually

predicted NO

well i'll have to find it then, lets see

predicted NO

can't find it

predicted NO

Can't find it. But I just looked at the cross-tabs again, and:

1/3 of 18-29 support (right)

1/3 of blacks support (right)

17% of dems vs 13% of repubs support

31% of "roman catholics" (21% of total) and 21% of those who 'attend church once a week' (17% of total) support (?)

50% of those who support 'central bank digital currencies' support it and 2% of those who oppose CBDCs support it (??), (16% of the total supported CBDCs, and CBDCs were the topic of the survey)

Although subgroup analyses are noisy anyway, which means they're not that useful for disproving a survey because they're implausible in the same way that underpowered subgroup analyses are usually p-hacking

predicted NO

i've also asked more people about this in the interim and didn't even get a single equivocal or supportive response. '[govt] surveillance with cameras bad' is a ubiquitous cultural trope.

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack I don't dispute your resolution, because it is about belief, but I don't quite yet share your belief. The results make sense to me. The issue is almost entirely about overreach of government. Privacy VS security instead of privacy AND security. Of course CBDC would strongly correlate.


predicted NO

Of course CBDC would strongly correlate.

It wouldn't correlate that strongly.

I mean, I also haven't been able to find a single person who supports this.

From different worlds, Scott's self-selected bubble kept him from knowing any creationists. But you can find creationists on the internet with twitter search! I'm not personally friends with anyone who smokes crack. But you can find them easily on the internet! There are creationists on twitter, on facebook, on instagram, on tiktok, on reddit, on discord.

If 15% of the population actually believed that, it'd come up in casual and internet conversation all the time. There'd be opinion pieces. Threads on fishing forums used by boomers. Debates on r/askreddit. Instagram comments. There's nothing!

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack I want to know why they reported those results. If they are accurate, it is somewhat troubling. If they are inaccurate, it is troubling in a different way.

Actually, that race distribution suggests to me there may be something going on there, or at least somewhat explains my "I don't know anybody who would be in favor":

I do believe it picked up on a real trend, that trend being young people not treating surveys very seriously lol

predicted NO

Currently still at 2% because a lot of the crosstabs seem implausible, I think it was just a bad poll, either via just randomization or via some technical error in the analysis or collection nobody caught.

Also what is wrong with discord users? This is one of the people who responded to my "survey". And they weren't the worst one. How representative of the 'general population' of gen Z can this person be?

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Are there any, like, commercial polling services i can spend $50 to do a quick representative poll on?

I'm more or less entirely convinced that the 'result' is fake somehow (although please do convince me otherwise if you can, always open to seeing good evidence), but I am curious what went wrong here. Like, if I want to learn from or rely on polling in the future, and can't find anything wrong with this poll that isn't also true of every other poll that isn't about an election, i'm not in a good spot.

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Bewildering... but considering that this arguably already exists to some extent, maybe the results are just the effect of deferring to the perceived status quo?

I tried asking gen z people in random discord servers if they supported it and couldn't find a single one. They all thought it was ridiculous. I'm going for 'something weird happened in polling'

but considering that this arguably already exists to some extent

People viscerally dislike cameras in a way they dislike less 'google knowing your browsing history', even if that's misguided in a consequentialist sense that your browsing history is more useful / tells more about your interests and character, so I don't think so