Resolves based on the first such debate, resolves N/A if no such debate happens.
Will resolve based on polling conducted about the debate. In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 election, this market resolves based on that.
If there are several questions polled about the candidates' debate performance, this question resolves based on the closest thing to the question "Overall, who do you think won the debate?"
If 538 does not sponsor their own polling but does have a definitive post-debate article covering other polling, perhaps averaging different polls of debate viewers, this market will resolve based on that coverage.
If 538 does not do that, another source of similar polling will be used. If none is available, this resolves N/A.
Criteria will be updated as we learn about if and how the debate will happen.
1,000
1.00@nikki I actually wouldn't have resolved this myself. Yeah, common sense says that Biden won't debate Trump, but we don't actually have any proof of that. Trump could, in theory, challenge Biden to a debate and Biden could accept. There's a sense in which you can draw a formal implication that Biden's withdrawal from the race means he won't win the election, but you can't do that for a debate, it's, screening ourself off from the kind of evidence the market price is supposed to reflect, a totally unrelated thing!
Also honestly I'm a bit sus on manifold resolving all the 'win election' markets no. Third party candidates have dropped out, come back into the race, and then gotten surprisingly high numbers. Yeah, we know that's not gonna happen this time, but I'm not sure that if we do something like this 50 times we won't mess it up once?