If Joe Biden debates Donald Trump for a second time before the 2024 election, will Biden win? (from polls)
Basic
31
3.3k
2025
17%
chance

Resolves based on the first such debate, resolves N/A if no such debate happens.

Will resolve based on polling conducted about the debate. In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 election, this market resolves based on that.

If there are several questions polled about the candidates' debate performance, this question resolves based on the closest thing to the question "Overall, who do you think won the debate?"

If 538 does not sponsor their own polling but does have a definitive post-debate article covering other polling, perhaps averaging different polls of debate viewers, this market will resolve based on that coverage.

If 538 does not do that, another source of similar polling will be used. If none is available, this resolves N/A.

Criteria will be updated as we learn about if and how the debate will happen.

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