# Jack's calibration

Grade: A, Score: -0.18

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jack bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

3%

- SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]NOṀ100
- The prime factors of N are both 2 mod 3, where N = 117968734185852909111122793179458044429748833609671492956099236663454458021167483523103665043186849896340566668709082216630299186083868726474403014230450576527498336056399517500373699648384503014218007972984281676376443077883955580519873153351211473492074726331214866950482499437571095445498914388647218496094203506927341398236714690311062488254644318997750013131645597009546941216705983462580669754031513NOṀ15
- Did the US officially enter a recession in 2022? (Announcement by NBER)NOṀ10

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ10,000
- Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of MayYESṀ6,600
- Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy)YESṀ5,000

90%

95%

97%