This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time between August 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y
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Resolves N, here is 2024 market: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-the-russian-ruble-rub-fall-bel-661f93751ac6
We can easily calculate probability of Russian Rubble hitting 111,1 exchange rate. (111,1 equals 0,009 depends which one you look at first). According to historical data, average of exchange rate is 75.8 with standart deviation of 13.2, this means that probability of Rubble going that down is 0.4%. If you will take only 2023 where average will be 83.9 and standart deviation of 9.6 probability goes down at 0.2%. On top of that if you take data from last month and prior where average will be 97.5 and standart deviation 1.6, probability goes down to 0% . On top of that we should take into account that there won't be any major sanctions and Israel Palestine war will just increase price of oil. According to this data probability of russian rubble hitting 111.1 is close to 0%.
Exchange rate data is taken from this source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/fx/USDRUB/historical-prices
