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@itsTomekK How will this resolve if Russia mobilizes a significant number of new troops in February, while avoiding a declaration of General Mobilization? From the Jan 30th ISW report:

Russian officials continue to institute measures suggesting they are preparing for a second wave of mobilization. Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrey Kartapolov stated on January 28 that the State Duma Committee on Defense is reviewing over 20 laws on mobilization deferrals, including those for families with disabled children or more than three children.[52] A Russian source claimed that Russian military recruiters in Ostrov, Pskov Oblast are attempting to recruit unemployed people into volunteer contract service.[53] Another Russian source reported that mobilization departments of universities in St. Petersburg, Omsk, and Vladimir oblasts demanded that students provide military registration data as part of preparations for a second wave of mobilization in February 2023.[54]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2023

I think they will do something but they probably won't announce anything. Announcing it was unpopular. And Putin may well wait to do any large mobilization until he feels more military disappointment.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization/ Metaculus is at 74%

@NikitaSkovoroda fix: 74% until July 1, and 55% until March 1

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/07/russia-plans-to-mobilize-half-a-million-soldiers-this-january-ukraines-intelligence/