Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?
60%
chance

Will resolve to YES when the following resolution source is no longer available.

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itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 67%
JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ1,588 of YES

The decomposition markets below show that this should be 85%

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting YES at 59%

@JonathanRay Now 76%. This market is still grossly underpriced

PossumsRus avatar
PossumsRusis predicting NO at 58%

@JonathanRay I'll be honest my no buy here is not for the purpose of earning mana 🎶🎶

Simon1551 avatar
Simonbought Ṁ100 of NO

@JonathanRay There is one way to solve this

SaladDongs avatar
Salad Dongsbought Ṁ100 of NO

Not only does he promise, IN SONG, that he will NEVER give ANY of us up, he has NEVER even shown the slightest intention of doing so. The premise of the question doesn't even make much sense, considering he CAN'T POSSIBLY give us up. We are but a memory to him, and in order for him to give us up, he would have to forget us. BUT, at the same time, he would have to CONSCIOUSLY go back on his promise, which CONTRADICTS the first premise of forgetting about us, as you cannot willfully forget something.

To summarize, not only is he showing no indication of giving us up, and not only is it super unlikely to be the case, but he's BOUND by LAWS of CAUSALITY into NOT giving us up.
In addition, the death of any party, whether that be him, or us, does NOT break the rules of his oath, because he's not GIVING us UP, rather we are separated by the forces of the universe. And as a final supplement, the death of Youtube or the internet itself will NOT mean that he's giving us up; Not only does he not have agency in the matter, but his oath is kept on DVD format, on the pieces of paper where his lyric was written, or even imprinted on our very memory.

SubreeKeller avatar
Subree Kelleris predicting NO at 52%

@SaladDongs Could this be used in a legal case if abandonment happens in the vicinity of Rick Ashley?

SaladDongs avatar
Salad Dongsis predicting NO at 63%

@SubreeKeller I believe Rick Astley would be charged with perjury if he violates his promise, if that's what you're asking. Yet another argument for why he would be inclined not to do so

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaneybought Ṁ10 of NO

@SaladDongs "Never Gonna Give You Up," was Released on a warm summery day on 27 July 1987, and while undoubtedly his most famous song, another song was released a mere five months later in in the much more wintery and cold 12 January 1988 date. In this less famous although also highly recognizable tune, "Together Forever," Astley explicitly states, "Together forever and never to part, Together forever we two." That's right - "We two." Not, "We anyone."

Not only did Rick Astley give ALL of us up in favor of a single partner, he did so over 35 years ago, and only the most delusional think that he never gave them up. Let's look a little bit closer at the aforementioned 1988 single, "Together Forever by Rick Astley," wherein he mentions:

  • I would move Heaven and Earth To be together forever with you

  • It's destiny calling A power I just can't deny

  • It's never-changing, Can't you hear me, I'm saying I want you for the rest of my life

  • There ain't no mistaking It's true love we're making

Wow, just wow...given that he's talking about WE TWO, which does not include any one of us here on Manifold do these sound like the words of a man who, "never gave you up?"

In short, would you trust someone who said that they would never and I quote "never gonna give you up," only to blatantly and very publicly, five months later, turn around and say to someone else, "There ain't no mistaking...It's true love we're making...together forever we two."

If that were to happen in any normal circumstance any impartial observer would clearly say that this individual did in fact gonna give you up.

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaneyis predicting NO at 64%

@SaladDongs Also, exhibit B: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b5V1wchZJU

The man explicitly states in this song that he is, "Giving Up on Love."

The dude explicitly said he's giving up, giving up, giving up, giving up on love because he's been hurt before, giving up on love cause he don't want chu no more...not sure how much more clear it can get than that.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 61%

Related:

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 61%
JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 58%

This market should be 1-(youtube_exists*(1-P(Give_up)|youtube_exists)) = 1-(0.27*0.55) = 0.8515

LudwigBald avatar
Ludwig Bald

This is too long a timeline for me to bet on. I think it's rather unlikely that Youtube will exist and continue to serve content in 280 years, so I would bet YES.

On a short timeline of a year, I don't think Rick would give me up.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ0 of YES

Youtube has a pretty strong financial incentive in keeping it up because of all the rickroll links on the internet. Rick has a pretty strong financial incentive in keeping it up because that's what he's famous for and it brings a lot of traffic to his youtube channel.

OTOH the base rate for link rot is pretty high, and the base rate for tech companies going out of business is pretty high, and the base rate for artists putting their music videos behind a paywall is pretty high.

Ibozz91 avatar
Ibozz91

What if all humans die from some cause, and all computers eventually crash, including youtube servers?

conradgetty avatar
Conrad Gettyis predicting NO at 41%

@Ibozz91 this market will go down with it

heavthree avatar
heav three

why would this ever be the case, really?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting YES at 43%

don't tell me you're too blind to see

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

I would say, "NO" because you don't know the rules, neither do I, a full commitment to this bet is not what I'm thinking of, you could basically get this from any other guy on Manifold.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting YES at 38%

Patrick i am trustworthy(ish) for so long... you just don't have mana, but you're too shy to say it. Everyone here knows what's been going on, we know the rules and we're gonna play it

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

@kolotom99 I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling, gotta make you understand.

NickelChen avatar
Nick el Chenbought Ṁ50 of NO

Nevah

cos avatar
cosbought Ṁ10 of NO

Never.

conradgetty avatar
Conrad Gettybought Ṁ10 of NO

Without Rick, where would we be? He'd never give any of us up.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon

Specifically that source?

What if youtube was offline for an hour worldwide?

Or what if the internet wasn't available for a minute worldwide would something like that count towards a YES resolution?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 45%

Would you then say that Rick gave you up?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 45%

@Simon1551 Yes, specifically that source.

Temporary glitches in Youtube or web do not count obviously.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon

@kolotom99 Nah he would never.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 50%

@Simon1551 thats why I'm betting NO, and current 46% is really surprising. He will never give you up.

Simon1551 avatar
Simonbought Ṁ40 of NO

@kolotom99 Why did you put a limit order at 45% then? 🤔

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 45%

@Simon1551 so others could comfortably could bet NO as well.

Simon1551 avatar
Simonis predicting NO at 45%

@kolotom99 How generous 😆

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 53%
Mira avatar
Mira

What if Youtube goes down for a week? (Maybe Elon Musk buys it and fires everyone...)

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 53%

@Mira We need market if Elon is gonna give you up then

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

What happens if that particular link is dead, but the same data can be found elsewhere?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ10 of NO

Then you got rickrolled ;)


If the link changes (ie. if YouTube rebrands and it becomes yutube.com instead of youtube.com) but the video is still on platform ➡️ you were not given up.

If this video from Rick's channel is no longer unavailable, regardless if it's available elsewhere ➡️ Rick gave you up, it has to resolve YES.

egroj avatar
JAAM

Can this ever resolve NO?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ108 of NO

@egroj i don't think he's ever gonna give you up, but who knows

egroj avatar
JAAM

@kolotom99 🤣

BTE avatar
BTE

You Rick Rolled Manifold!! 😂 🤣